QIC sees RBA holding cash rate at 4.6% through year-end, flags February 2027 risk

• QIC expects the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.6% through end-2026, despite headline inflation at 4%.
• Underlying inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, yet growth is sub-trend as the labor market weakens toward 5% unemployment.
• Housing downturn seen intensifying, with national prices down 5.2% from peak following a 1.1% fall in September.
• Oil above USD 100/bbl keeps a secondary inflation shock risk in focus while the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.
• Next meaningful risk to the 4.6% policy setting flagged for February 2027, contingent on energy-driven inflation persistence.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. QIC Ltd. published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 02, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.