Damo: China's share of the global export market is expected to rise from 15% now to 16.5% in 2030

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that despite trade tensions, China is continuing to deepen its position in the global supply chain by increasing the share of added value in global imports and expanding exports to emerging markets. The bank expects this trend to continue, driving China's share of the global export market from 15% today to 16.5% in 2030.

According to Damascus, China's participation in the global supply chain is deepening despite rising protectionist measures. Since 2017, China's market share in global exports has increased by 2 percentage points; according to the bank's estimates, the share of added value contributed by China in global imports from regions other than China has also increased by 2 percentage points, and this increase has covered a wide range of manufacturing sectors.

The bank said that China is at the cutting edge of emerging industries and dominates with innovation and independent technology. Due to its highly integrated domestic supply chain, China plays a key role in supplying low-cost parts and high-end capital goods. As the bank previously emphasized, Chinese decision makers have begun to lay out the next phase of the industrial cycle. As the world enters the era of Embodied AI (Embodied AI), China has established a dominant position in the field of robotics and humanoid robots, and is working to apply embodied intelligence to industrial scenarios.

According to Damo, since 2017, US tariffs and non-tariff measures have reduced China's share of US imports by 14 percentage points, but the bank's estimates show that the share of added value from China in US imports has actually remained stable. In other words, the US is actually importing goods indirectly from China. However, considering that China's share of added value in imports from other regions of the world increased by 2 percentage points during the same period, the US has at least stabilized in controlling the share of Chinese components in its imports.

Dama said that for the rest of the world, especially emerging market countries, its trade relationship with China continues to deepen. These countries not only rely on China to meet domestic demand, but also rely on China to supply parts and various components needed to expand exports. For example, although India has made significant progress in the electronics manufacturing sector, it still needs to import large quantities of intermediate and capital goods from China.