Citibank (C.US) raised its Bitcoin target to 113,000, and ETF (IBIT.US) capital flows are now diverging

According to Woofun AI, Citigroup (C.US) (Citi)'s latest research report drastically revised crypto asset price expectations, jumping the 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000, while raising the Ethereum target price to $3,028.

This adjustment marks the agency's repricing of the long-term value of the crypto market. Although the current price is close to the new target, Citi continues to adhere to a bullish logic, believing that the improved macro environment and reduced regulatory uncertainty are the core driving forces. Notably, on September 30, when the report was released, the spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) recorded a net outflow of US$148.69 million. The short-term divergence in funding added complexity to this optimistic expectation.

The logic behind rising expectations is rooted in Citi analyst Alex Saunders (Alex Saunders)'s comprehensive assessment of the three core indicators — market activity, macroeconomic conditions, and ETF capital flows. Sanders pointed out that with the failure to pass the 'Clear Act' and the clarification of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulatory policies, the market's concerns about the systematic depreciation of Bitcoin's value have decreased significantly, which has prompted the price to return to a level of technical support. Looking back at historical data, Citi was extremely pessimistic in its June 30 report, plummeting the expected ETF inflow from $10 billion to zero within 12 months, and lowered the target price of Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000 and the target price of Ethereum from $3,175 to $2,240; at the time, Bitcoin was trading at around $59,000 and Ethereum was around $1,600. Today, Citi expects a capital inflow of $5 billion over the next 12 months, mainly due to the gradual increase in allocation by investment advisors and brokerage firms.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, technical signals also confirm this transformation: Bitcoin appeared on September 8, that is, the 50-day moving average broke through the 200-day moving average, then ETF capital inflows resumed, and the price broke through the 200-day moving average as a key turning point.

Looking at market performance, Coinglass data shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum achieved 42.7% and 70.8% gains in the third quarter, respectively. Among them, Bitcoin recorded the first full increase in the third quarter on record, and the decline narrowed to 3% and 8.4% respectively since this year. As of press time, Bitcoin traded at $84,591, a 24-hour increase of 1.18%, and Citi's target price is about 34% higher than the current price. By contrast, Matthew Sigel (Matthew Sigel), head of digital asset research at VanEck, expects the Bitcoin price to surpass $100,000 in 2027, and Citi's expectations are more aggressive.

However, short-term demand showed signs of weakness, Bitcoin ETF demand cooled down at the end of September, and CryptoQuant statistics showed that actual spot demand fell by 170,000 units within 30 days. On the Ethereum side, the current transaction price was $2,699.46, up 0.34% on the same day. The new target price only reserves about 12% room for growth, and is still below the $3,175 target set before June 30. On the supply side, Santiment data showed that only 3.49% of the Ethereum supply existed on exchanges last week, and selling pressure was relatively limited, but Ethereum ETF (ETHA.US) capital inflows ended a seven-day upward trend on September 29th.

The key point in the future is to verify whether Citi's prediction of capital inflows holds true. As the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) meets from October 27 to 28, the market will keep a close eye on changes in subsequent fund data. A shift in macroeconomic policies or changes in liquidity expectations may further affect the pricing logic of crypto assets. Investors need to be wary of tension between short-term ETF outflows and long-term price targets. This divergence often indicates increased market volatility.

Additionally, expert opinions and in-depth analysis on social media platforms such as the X platform and YouTube channel provide multiple perspectives for understanding this complex situation. Overall, Citi's upward expectations reflect the rebuilding of institutional confidence after the implementation of regulations, but the short-term financial cooling reminds the market that the long-term bull market is not progressing linearly, and the resonance between technical and fundamental signals is still a key variable.