Three signals resonate: Bitcoin in the early stages of a bull market or a rate hike trap?

According to Woofun AI, Frank Capelleri, founder and president of the chart research firm CappThesis, judged that Bitcoin's current trend is not an ordinary rebound, but is in the early stages of a larger upward trend. Its core logic is based on the resonance of three key market signals.

The effectiveness of technological breakthroughs is the primary basis. In an analysis written for CNBC Pro on October 1, Capelleri pointed out that Bitcoin has reproduced a breakout pattern that traders previously viewed as a bullish sign, and this phenomenon directly contributed to an increase of about 20% in August.

It is worth noting that between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the market experienced three similar patterns but failed to achieve an effective breakthrough, which is regarded as a typical characteristic of a downtrend; in contrast, a healthy upward trend will continue to rise after achieving a breakthrough, and the implementation of this pattern marks a fundamental improvement in the market structure.

Cyclical regularity and long-term trends provide further support. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this year's Bitcoin weekly chart trend is highly similar to that of 2022 to 2023. At that time, the weekly average price line changed from limiting increases to an upward buffer decline, which became a key sign of the market changing from decline to rise. Cappelleri believes that the upward trend of the S&P 500 index in the fourth quarter is expected to continue into the crypto market. Looking at the longer cycle, Bitcoin's rebound began with an upward trend line that dates back to 2017. The previous three close times all triggered a rebound within a few months; in addition, the rare increase in August was accompanied by a recovery in exchange trading volume, further verifying the strength of the bottom support.

However, macro headwinds cannot be ignored. According to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME.US) FedWatch data, as of September 28, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in October is as high as 68.1%. According to BeInCrypto analysis, concerns about rising interest rates are the main reason for the recent market decline. Whether Bitcoin can maintain its breakout trend under the pressure of interest rate hikes will determine whether this is a trend shift or a brief rebound that will eventually subside.