Non-agricultural farmers only increased by 29,000. US employment data for September was weak, and wages rose slightly

According to Woofun AI, the September employment report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the overall labor market showed a significant weakening trend. According to Jin10 data, employment changes in all major industries during the month were at a very low level, reflecting a further weakening of the momentum of economic expansion.

Based on an in-depth analysis of household surveys, the number of unemployed people in September was fixed at 7.1 million. This figure is roughly the same as last month. Notably, since March, the unemployment rate has fluctuated within a narrow range of 4.1% to 4.3%, showing the characteristics of a rigid labor market. In the demographic breakdown, the unemployment rate for black people rose to 7.0% in September, making it the only major category of workers to see a significant increase; in contrast, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9%), adult women (3.6%), teenagers (14.5%), whites (3.6%), Asians (2.9%), and Hispanics (4.7%) did not change substantially during the month. Long-term unemployment remains a serious problem, and the number of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more has remained at 1.9 million, accounting for 27.1% of the total number of unemployed. The labor force participation rate is 61.8%, and the employment ratio is 59.2%. The net change in these two key indicators has been minimal since January, indicating that there has been no significant expansion in the potential supply of labor.

In addition, 4.5 million people choose to work part-time for financial reasons. This group of people prefer to work full time but is forced to work part-time due to reduced working hours or barriers to finding a job. The number of people not in the labor force who are currently hoping to get a job is 5.8 million. They are not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for a job or were unable to accept a job in the 4 weeks prior to the survey. Among this group, the number of people attached to the labor force dropped by 236,000 to 1.5 million in September; these people wanted and were able to work and had looked for work in the past 12 months but stopped looking for it in the last 4 weeks. Frustrated workers with a marginal subset of people didn't change much during the month, at 414,000. This group of people thought there were no suitable job opportunities for them.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the above structural indicators together paint a picture of an inactive labor market, where the plight of the long-term unemployed and marginal workers has not been alleviated.

Business survey data further revealed the differentiation between industries and the stagnation of overall growth. The total number of non-farm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, far lower than the average monthly increase of 45,000 in the previous 12 months. The healthcare sector continued to grow, adding 17,000 people in September, but the growth rate was lower than the average monthly increase of 33,000 in the previous 12 months. Specifically, outpatient healthcare services increased by 13,000 people, hospitals increased by 12,000, and nursing and retirement accommodation facilities decreased by 9,000 people. The number of people employed in the construction industry increased by 11,000, with little change. Over the past 12 months, the industry has increased an average of 10,000 jobs per month; among them, the number of non-residential specialty contractors has increased by 12,000, indicating that there is still some support for non-residential construction activities. The number of people employed in the manufacturing industry increased by 9,000, with little change, but it has increased by 72,000 since the recent low in December 2025; the plastics and rubber products manufacturing industry increased by 5,000 people and the machinery manufacturing industry increased by 5,000 in that month, indicating a recovery in some segments.

However, the number of people employed in financial activities fell by 7,000, and has decreased by 129,000 since the recent peak in May 2025. Most of these job losses occurred in insurance companies and related fields of activity, with a decrease of 90,000, reflecting a continuous trend of deleveraging or efficiency improvement in the financial industry. There was little change in employment numbers in other major industries during the month, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and storage, information, professional and commercial services, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, other services, and government departments.

In terms of pay, the average hourly wage of all employees in the private non-farm sector rose slightly by 5 cents (or 0.1%) in September to $37.81, an increase of 3.0% over the past 12 months; the average hourly wage for production and non-management workers rose 7 cents (or 0.2 percent) to $32.60. In terms of working hours, the average weekly working hours for all employees were maintained at 34.4 hours; the average weekly working hours in the manufacturing industry were maintained at 40.6 hours and overtime hours were maintained at 3.0 hours; and the average weekly working hours for production and non-management personnel remained at 33.8 hours.

The more critical variable is the revision of historical data: the total number of non-farm payrolls was lowered by 31,000 in July, from +21,000 to -10,000; in August, 29,000 people were revised down, from +162,000 to +133,000. As a result of these revisions, the number of people employed in July and August combined decreased by 60,000 compared to the previous report. This sharp decline seriously weakened previously optimistic expectations about the resilience of the labor market.

Taken together, the US labor market is undergoing a substantial shift from 'strong' to 'weak', with increasing industry differentiation and declining historical data further confirming the decline in growth momentum. This is yet another sign that the manufacturing and construction industries have failed to provide sufficient hedging power after the financial sector continued to lose jobs in the second half of 2025. The October 2026 employment report is scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026 (Friday) at 8:30 a.m. EST (20:30 Beijing time). The market will closely monitor whether subsequent data continues this weak trend and whether wage growth can remain sticky in the context of slowing employment.