Samsara (IOT) Could Be 37% Undervalued After Asplundh Deal And AI Launch
Samsara (IOT) just paired fresh AI tools with a major fleet customer. Asplundh is rolling out Samsara hardware and software across tens of thousands of assets, while the new MCP protocol links its data into leading AI assistants.
These AI launches and customer wins have arrived alongside rising market interest in Samsara, with a 7 day share price return of 8.3% at a latest share price of US$41.12 and a year to date share price return of 21.2%, which contrasts with a more modest 5.2% 1 year total shareholder return.
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The recent jump in Samsara stock puts fresh pressure on the entry point. Given its AI roll out, the major Asplundh deal and its current US$41.12 price, does the risk reward balance still lean toward new buyers?
Most Popular Narrative: 36.7% Undervalued
On the most followed view, Samsara is framed as materially undervalued, with a fair value of $65 against the current $41.12 share price. This puts a wide gap between what the narrative sees and where the market is trading.
Samsara is a pioneering IoT platform company focused on connecting data from physical operations such as transportation, construction, and logistics. In fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2026), Samsara’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $1.89 billion, growing 30% year-over-year. Fourth-quarter FY2026 revenue came in at $444.3 million (+28% YoY), while quarterly net new ARR grew 33% YoY to $144.8 million.
See why 13 investors see Samsara as 37% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $65 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Samsara narrative can wobble if competition compresses pricing power, or if weaker fleet spending slows the push into higher value AI features.
Find out about the key risks to this Samsara narrative.
Another View On Samsara's Valuation
That 36.7% undervaluation story puts a spotlight on upside, but the current P/S of 13x paints a tougher picture. The wider software industry sits near 3.9x, direct peers cluster around 7x, and a fair ratio of 8.8x suggests the market could lean toward a lower multiple. If sentiment cools, how comfortable are you paying this premium today?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Mixed signals on Samsara's pricing and narrative do not need to leave you stuck on the sidelines. Move quickly to review the data and weigh both the upside and the weak spots using 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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