US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes rose sharply, oil fell below $100, and US bond yields fell
Pre-market market trends
1. Before the US stock market on October 6 (Tuesday), futures on the three major US stock indices rose sharply. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.71%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.50%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.62%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.73%, the British FTSE 100 index rose 0.35%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.60%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.70%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.28% to $87.39 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.34% to $97.97 per barrel.
Market news
The oil price fell below 100 yuan+ Beisent called, and US bond yields have fallen back from a high level in 2002. US Treasury yields fell from their highest level since 2002, as oil prices fell below $100 per barrel, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted that the government debt burden was manageable. The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields fell 3 basis points and 4 basis points, respectively, to 5.27% and 5.63%, while the 2-year Treasury yield remained essentially flat. Crude oil prices retreated on Tuesday as there were signs that more crude oil supplies were passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This marks the end of the sell-off in the global bond market. Previously, the bond market continued to decline due to concerns about inflation caused by the war between the US and Iran and rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's further tightening of monetary policy. Bezent tried to appease investors, saying that the combination of economic growth and spending restrictions would “soon” begin to change the US government's borrowing path. On Monday evening, during a fireside conversation in Pennsylvania, he said the government would begin to “reverse this trend.”
The Saudi east-west oil pipeline was restored to 5.8 million b/d. On October 6, local time, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman said that at present, the daily oil volume of the Saudi East-West pipeline has returned to 5.8 million barrels. He said it only took five to six days for Saudi Arabia to resume operation of this line after the pipeline was “severely attacked.” Earlier, the pipeline was closed on September 10 due to a drone attack launched from the direction of Iraq. A person familiar with the matter revealed late last week that Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company, has increased the pipeline's oil flow to close to 6 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to more than 80% of its total transportation capacity. Of this, about 4.5 million barrels/day of crude oil can be exported through the port of Yanbu on the Saudi Red Sea coast.
Investors are starting to say “no” to AI overvaluations, and Wall Street IPO activity has plummeted. Wall Street IPO activity has slowed to very little. Investors' demand for new shares is sluggish, and market concerns that valuations are too high put pressure on this quarter, which was originally expected to usher in a boom in listing. The delay in the listing of Anthropic and OpenAI has also dampened sentiment in the US equity capital market. “Nobody cares about any company other than Anthropic right now,” said the head of equity capital markets at a major US asset management company. Investment bankers' strong business this year was largely due to SpaceX's June IPO. However, the market is increasingly concerned about the downturn in the AI industry and public opposition to data centers, and the IPO market has been drying up in recent weeks. The banker added that investors are increasingly questioning “unrealistic” valuations obtained by companies linked to the AI investment boom. According to BCA Research data, the stock prices of technology companies listed this year have fallen by an average of about 23% since the first trading day, further increasing market concerns that banks are overpricing transactions in order to obtain underwriting business.
Witness history! The share of new global pure fuel vehicle sales fell below 50% for the first time. According to Mobility Global's latest data, in the first half of 2026, pure gasoline models accounted for 49% of global new car sales. This is the first time in history that pure gasoline vehicle sales have fallen below 50%, and a sharp drop of 24% from 73% in 2021. The data also shows that in the first half of this year, the overall automobile market size shrank by about 5%, while the decline in pure gasoline vehicle sales reached double that of the general market. Industry insiders attributed the accelerated shift in the market to oil prices. That is, due to the Middle East conflict, fuel prices have soared sharply, and consumers have begun to seek models with lower vehicle costs. By region, sales of gasoline vehicles in China fell 26% year on year in the first half of the year, the biggest drop in the world; Europe followed suit, falling 13%. In terms of pure electric vehicle sales, the European market increased 32% year over year to 1.81 million units; the Southeast Asian market increased 81% year over year to 350,000 units; sales in the Oceania market doubled to 110,000 units.
Individual stock news
Google (GOOGL.US) spent $4.3 billion to buy electricity to lock in Constellation Energy (CEG.US) 3,590 megawatts of long-term energy. Google has signed a contract with Constellation Energy, the largest grid operator in the US, to purchase 3,590 megawatts of electricity, of which new nuclear power plants account for about a quarter of this supply. The two companies said the agreement will bring more than $4.3 billion in additional investment to Constellation and involves the expansion of the power company's multiple nuclear reactors in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions. Major technology companies are scrambling to lock in massive electricity supplies across the US to power data centers, and have reached unprecedented agreements with American Electric Power. In the past two years, Constellation announced an agreement to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear reactor in Pennsylvania to service Microsoft's data center, while Google signed an agreement to restart NextEra Energy's nuclear power plant in Iowa. Google rose 0.5% in the premarket, and Constellation rose more than 7%.
AMD (AMD.US) Su Zifeng: Demand for chips will still be “very high”, calling on AI companies to strengthen security cooperation. AMD CEO Lisa Su (Lisa Su) said on Tuesday that demand for chips will remain “very high” in the next few years, even if the industry faces challenges such as AI security concerns. She said that even as AMD increases production, demand still exceeds supply. She called on top AI companies to cooperate to ensure that the technology does not cause harm. AMD's optimism has further strengthened the bullish sentiment in the AI industry, as exemplified by Micron's strong outlook and Hon Hai Precision's better-than-expected quarterly sales. However, some investors are increasingly concerned about the industry's overcapacity, rising debt levels, and regulatory setbacks. While visiting supply chain partners including TSMC, Su Zifeng said, “We are also increasing our supply and production capacity in 2026, but I can say with certainty that demand is even higher than our supply. We're going to increase supply significantly in 2027, but we definitely need more.” AMD rose 1.6% in the premarket.
The profit of the New York Securities industry is worth 90 billion US dollars! Goldman Sachs (GS.US) has broken the quarterly record for the third time in a row, and Wall Street prize money will reach a record high. New York's trading and investment banking companies have had a brilliant year, which is expected to bring record profits to the entire industry. Profits will exceed 90 billion US dollars at the current rate, and bonuses are expected to reach the highest level in history. According to a report by New York State Comptroller Thomas Dinapoli, this annual profit estimate based on growth in the first half of 2026 will easily surpass last year's record of 65.1 billion US dollars. Dinapoli said that as long as there is no major economic turmoil, this generous amount of money should be converted into a record set of bonuses for financial practitioners in the entire industry in the new year, but he did not give specific figures. Driven by financial market fluctuations and rising confidence in M&A transactions, Wall Street investment banks have reported record revenue in key business lines so far this year. Take Goldman Sachs Group as an example. It has broken the quarterly records for all banks' stock trading business for the third consecutive quarter. Goldman Sachs rose 1% in the premarket.
AI+ aerospace “twin engine” launched! Goldman Sachs is bullish on SpaceX (SPCX.US) at $230. Before SpaceX (SPCX.US) will announce the results for the third quarter of 2026 on November 5, EST, Goldman Sachs updated and upgraded the company's artificial intelligence (AI) business forecasts, including computing power capacity, revenue and profit margin predictions based on the company's recent trading activities, latest public statements, and key enterprise use cases and model development progress. Goldman Sachs reiterated its “buy” rating for SpaceX in the research report. The target price for 12 months was raised from 220 US dollars to 230 US dollars, up almost 45% from last Friday's closing price. The bank continues to believe that SpaceX has good expansion conditions in the following fields: space business (launch and reuse), connectivity business (broadband and mobile satellite constellations), and AI business (computing power, X, etc.). Each of these markets has the potential to grow into trillion-dollar opportunities over the next 5 years or more. At the same time, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the company's vertical integration strategy after the merger, as well as the resulting structural costs and competitive advantages. The bank anticipates that these advantages will further accumulate and strengthen development momentum over the next few years. SpaceX rose 0.4% in the premarket.
McDonald's (MCD.US) faces a class action lawsuit in the US! Accused of using an AI pricing system to illegally manipulate menu prices. The lawsuit was filed last Friday, accusing McDonald's of violating US antitrust law by colluding with independent franchisees to manipulate prices using algorithms based on non-public data training. The lawsuit quoted relevant media reports and pointed out that other fast food companies have also begun to use AI to assist in pricing and other operations. “Independent businesses must independently set their own prices,” the lawsuit said. McDonald's said in a statement on Monday that the allegations were “unfounded and lacked sufficient information support.” “AI won't set prices for Big Mac or any other menu item,” the company said. McDonald's said that franchisees make their own pricing decisions, and the use of pricing recommendation tools and analysis tools is very common in all industries. McDonald's rose 0.4% in the premarket.
According to the news, Seagate (STX.US) and Toshiba compete for TDK's hard drive head business. According to reports, Seagate is fiercely competing with Toshiba over TDK's hard drive head business. People familiar with the matter said that Toshiba began negotiations with TDK in the spring, then Seagate made a higher offer in the summer. They said the acquisition deal is expected to be worth up to several billion dollars. The winning bidder will control the supply chain that plays a key role in competition in the hard drive market, which is currently dominated by three companies. TDK is currently the only independent manufacturer of hard disk drive (HDD) magnetic recording heads, supplying not only the two bidders, but also Western Digital (WDC.US). Seagate fell 2% before the market, and Western Digital fell nearly 3% before the market.
Key economic data and event forecasts
At 20:15 Beijing time, the US ADP employment week announced changes for the week ending September 19
20:30 Beijing time US trade balance for August
At 13:05 Beijing time, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Federal Reserve Chairman Williams presided over the 2026 Governance and Cultural Reform Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve.
22:05 Beijing time Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for September
At 00:00 a.m. the next day Beijing time, the EIA released the monthly short-term energy outlook report
At 07:00 the next morning Beijing time, 2026 FOMC voting committee and Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan delivered a speech