Is Tutor Perini (TPC) A Bargain On Rising Earnings Expectations?
Tutor Perini (TPC) is back in focus after analysts maintained optimistic earnings expectations, with forecasts pointing to year-over-year gains in both the upcoming quarter and the full fiscal year.
The recent move in Tutor Perini's share price, with a 1-day share price return of 3.04% and a 7-day share price return of 5.52%, builds on a 90-day share price return of 17.98% and a year-to-date share price return of 28.42%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 45.06% and very large 3-year and 5-year total shareholder returns indicate that momentum has been strong for investors who stayed in the stock through earlier volatility.
Scan other construction and infrastructure plays showing similar earnings momentum to Tutor Perini by screening for list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results) in the same corner of the market.
Bulls point to Tutor Perini’s earnings outlook and gap to analyst targets. Bears focus on past volatility and construction risk. Which side does today’s valuation actually lean toward, as you weigh the recent run up?
Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued
Tutor Perini's most followed valuation story pegs fair value at $113.25, above the last close of $89.06, which puts the recent rally in a different light for anyone focusing on long term cash generation rather than short term price swings.
Record backlog growth, now at an all-time high of $21.1 billion (up 102% YoY), provides strong visibility and multi-year revenue predictability, as a series of major projects ramp up over the next several years.
Sustained federal and state infrastructure funding, particularly for large-scale transit and civil projects (Midtown Bus Terminal, Sepulveda Transit Corridor, Indo-Pacific Defense contracts), is fueling robust project pipeline expansion, favorably impacting both future revenue and long-term earnings growth.
See why 21 investors see Tutor Perini as 21% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $113.25 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the bullish case for Tutor Perini hinges on mega projects landing and executing cleanly, while any renewed cost overruns or litigation could quickly challenge that narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Tutor Perini narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed signals around Tutor Perini’s upside and risk can easily pull you in either direction. Act while the data is fresh and stress test the bullish and bearish cases against the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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