SES AI Is Down 59% Even Though Sales Rose
SES AI has spent 2026 in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons, from a sharp selloff after weaker guidance to securities class actions over alleged revenue misstatements. Holding SES AI from the start of the year would have meant a 58.8% loss, including dividends. If you had been weighing a position on 1 January, the key question now is whether the concerns around disclosure and customer quality were already visible or only became clear once the damage was done.
Narratives are how investors here put a case on the record, with explicit assumptions about revenue, margins and the multiple. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.
This theme extends beyond SES AI. See which of 33 best rare earth metal stocks may still merit a closer look.
The Two SES AI Stories Investors Had To Weigh
The shares cost US$1.8 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at SES AI then had to decide which of two very different stories felt more realistic.
On the bullish side, the optimistic Narrative put Fair Value at US$2, assuming revenue growth of 176.1% a year with profit margins improving to 13.6% and the business eventually trading on a 30.1x P/E.
The more cautious Narrative set Fair Value at US$1.33, built on 160.0% annual revenue growth, a 10.0% margin target, and the risk that customer concentration could leave earnings exposed if a major partner walked away.
What The Evidence Did To The SES AI Argument
SES AI’s later disclosure of securities class actions over alleged revenue misstatements and related party deals directly challenged the bullish case that assumed clean, scalable commercial traction. Reported figures showed revenue at US$5.072 million in Q2 2026 versus US$3.527 million a year earlier, with the loss narrowing from US$22.651 million to US$17.903 million. The cautious Narrative looked closer to the mark.
The hinge assumption was about revenue quality, not just revenue growth. For another stock, do not stop at top-line momentum. Compare management’s claimed pipeline and customer base with reported segment sales, counterparties and any disclosure on related party transactions.
What SES AI’s Fall Is Asking You To Believe Now
SES AI now trades at US$0.79 from the start of the year, after a 58.8% loss. The selected Narrative argues that its Fair Value sits above that price, built on index inclusion, guidance reaffirmed at US$30 million to US$35 million, and a battery plus software story that leans heavily on AI.
The tension is simple. A buyer today has to judge whether SES AI can turn its Molecular Universe platform, UZ Energy acquisition and current liquidity into durable contracts that outweigh geopolitical, supply chain and integration risks.
"Rapid platform adoption, strategic acquisitions, financial discipline, and proprietary technology position SES AI for strong, differentiated growth and industry leadership in AI-driven battery solutions."
Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the higher figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there
Where SES AI Power Could Point
SES AI is trying to turn better batteries and software into real energy demand. That naturally raises another question for readers.
Who keeps that electricity flowing when new storage projects arrive and customers plug in?
Every battery project still depends on reliable generation and a grid that can carry the load.
One specialist focuses on building and upgrading heavy infrastructure that supports this backbone.
Its engineers work on turbines, transformers and control systems that help utilities balance sudden demand shifts. As SES AI’s ambitions expand, that grid builder’s role could become much harder to ignore.
The case is on the record, with the assumptions it rests on. → See the Narrative that values this company 23% above its price
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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