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Wall Street strategists are clearly divided as to whether US Treasury yields will fall sharply at the end of the year or reach new highs. Goldman Sachs's William Marshall and others still insist on a bullish judgment, believing that the market's concerns about inflation and the expansion of government debt may be excessive, and may create conditions for a wave of bond market rebound before the end of the year. Others hold the opposite view. Anshul Pradhan, head of US interest rate research at Barclays Capital, believes that yields may continue to rise and remain high. However, this does not mean that any party thinks future trends will be easy to predict. Multiple factors are dominating the market and making the outlook more vague, including the impact on energy prices brought about by the Iran war, the Federal Reserve's shift to interest rate hikes, and an unprecedented boom in artificial intelligence that continues to inject momentum into the economy. On Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury yield once rose to 5.36%, and the 30-year yield surpassed 5.7%, all reaching levels not seen since 2002.

Zhitongcaijing·10/07/2026 17:01:21
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Wall Street strategists are clearly divided as to whether US Treasury yields will fall sharply at the end of the year or reach new highs. Goldman Sachs's William Marshall and others still insist on a bullish judgment, believing that the market's concerns about inflation and the expansion of government debt may be excessive, and may create conditions for a wave of bond market rebound before the end of the year. Others hold the opposite view. Anshul Pradhan, head of US interest rate research at Barclays Capital, believes that yields are likely to continue to rise and remain high. However, this does not mean that any party thinks future trends will be easy to predict. Multiple factors are dominating the market and making the outlook more vague, including the impact on energy prices brought about by the Iran war, the Federal Reserve's shift to interest rate hikes, and an unprecedented boom in artificial intelligence that continues to inject momentum into the economy. On Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury yield once rose to 5.36%, and the 30-year yield surpassed 5.7%, all reaching levels not seen since 2002.