BTC falls below $85,000, on-chain data reveals 81000 key support
According to Woofun AI, the BTC price once again fell below the $85,000 mark, and market focus quickly shifted to the $81,000 key support level defined by Glassnode. This fall in price occurred against the backdrop of shrinking trading volume and slow entry of new capital, marking the exhaustion of momentum after a brief breakout.
Despite fluctuating market sentiment, on-chain data revealed deep structural divisions: on the one hand, macroeconomic weakness suppresses short-term rebounds, and on the other hand, long-term holders' reluctance to sell and net exchange outflow signals suggest a potential bottom-building process. Currently, the market is at a sensitive point in the rebalancing of long and short forces, and any directional breakthrough depends on effective confirmation of key points.
The more critical variable is that new capital is insufficient to support the current market capitalization expansion, and price fluctuations are more driven by changes in existing capital, which makes the game between technical support and resistance levels particularly intense.
Macro-level uncertainty continues to ferment. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday show that most officials prefer to raise interest rates again within the year. This hawkish stance directly impacted risk asset pricing. BTC was under pressure at the beginning of the release of the minutes, but it rebounded 0.18% within the next 5 minutes. At press time, it was trading at $83,079, with a cumulative decline of 1.8% within 24 hours.
Notably, historical data shows that BTC's response to US economic data is characterized by “short and long”: after PCE inflation data was released, it briefly rose 2%, but fell 2.3% within 12 hours of October 2 employment data. Compared to the S&P 500 index, which maintained its original level after the data was released.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the average daily trading volume of the spot and ETF markets is about 6.8 billion US dollars. This figure is lower than 90% of the trading day level since January 2024, indicating a significant cooling in market activity. Domestic demand in the US was also weak, and the Coinbase (COIN.US) Premium Index recorded -0.056. Negative values mean that the price of BTC on Coinbase is lower than Binance, and the index has continued to be below the zero axis since the beginning of September. In terms of capital inflows, in the 30 days up to October 5, ETF capital flows, stablecoin issuance, and corporate cash purchases increased by about $4.9 billion, while the total market value of BTC at the latest price increased by about $12.8 billion. The additional capital only explains two-fifths of the increase. The rest is due to the high turnover of existing capital. This is similar to the upward logic of 2024 and 2025, but the inflow of capital was larger at the time. Price movements will depend on existing holders' willingness to sell until additional capital accelerates.
The fragmentation of position holding behavior has further highlighted structural contradictions within the market. When BTC first closed above $85,000 in a single day on October 4, some holders chose to cash out. New buyers who held for less than 155 days on that day accounted for 86% of the exchange's capital inflows, a record high in the past year. Analyst MAC_D notes that futures traders have remained on the sidelines, and the total number of open contracts has dropped by nearly 10% since September 22, from $28.8 billion to $26 billion.
However, Santiment's data reveals another side: 24,073 BTC flowed out of the exchange on October 5, the highest value since March 1, and exchange holdings currently account for 6.50% of the total supply.
This outflow is seen as a positive sign, meaning there is less stock available for immediate sale. In-depth analysis of the order book shows that as of October 7, the largest purchase on the Binance platform was between $81,000 and $81,250, and has remained in this range since October 3. There is a set of liquidation orders between $81,700 and $83,300 slightly above this range. If leveraged bulls are forced to close their positions, they may further depress the price. The liquidation order further down is around $75,000.
Looking at the upward path, if BTC can close above $85,500, it is expected to recoup this week's losses; there is pressure on selling orders in the upper $86,500 to $86,750 range, while the higher range of $87,100 to $95,900 is distributed with liquidation orders, with the most intensive selling orders around $92,000. Breaking through these ranges may trigger bears to close positions and push prices upward. The next key macro point is the October 14 CPI data. The release time is about two weeks before the Federal Reserve's October 27th and 28th meeting. The market will pay close attention to the impact of inflation data on policy expectations.