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    Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) Could Be 35% Undervalued On Phase 3 LUCIDITY Data Reveal

    Simply Wall St·10/08/2026 17:23:09
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    Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) is back in focus after confirming it will share late breaking Phase 3 LUCIDITY data for avexitide in post bariatric hypoglycemia at ObesityWeek 2026.

    The latest avexitide update lands after a choppy stretch for Amylyx Pharmaceuticals, with the share price down 19.6% over the past 30 days and 5.7% over the last week, but still showing a 90 day share price return of 49.2% and a year to date share price return of 140.2%.

    Scan Amylyx Pharmaceuticals alongside a curated group of rare disease and biotech peers that also screen well on fundamentals with our 20 high quality undiscovered gems for contrarian ideas before they hit the spotlight.

    Amylyx Pharmaceuticals has surged this year, yet the share price still trades well below both analyst targets and one intrinsic value estimate. Is the gap a genuine margin of safety, or a warning sign on the assumptions behind those models?

    Most Popular Narrative: 35% Undervalued

    Compared with the latest $27.43 close, the most followed narrative pegs Amylyx Pharmaceuticals at a fair value of $42.36, which frames the current discount squarely around how investors view the LUCIDITY data and the broader GLP 1 antagonist franchise.

    The company is targeting post bariatric hypoglycemia, a condition with no FDA approved therapies and an estimated 160,000 patients in the U.S., which creates room for a first approved product like avexitide to establish a new revenue line if pricing and access are secured.

    See why 2 investors see Amylyx Pharmaceuticals as 35% undervalued.

    In this storyline, a 7.24% discount rate is applied to future cash flows, and the $42.36 figure reflects analysts' forecasts for revenue to ramp from effectively zero today toward $343.4m by 2029 and earnings to swing from a $152.1m loss to $86.8m of profit at a 25.3% margin. The same view assumes Amylyx Pharmaceuticals could eventually trade on a 70.0x P/E multiple of those 2029 earnings. This is far above the current 15.8x P/E level cited for the wider US pharmaceuticals sector, so a large part of the valuation gap rests on confidence in those growth and profitability expectations.

    Shareholders also need to weigh the reliance on avexitide, the single pivotal LUCIDITY trial and the capital required to commercialize into an underdeveloped post bariatric hypoglycemia market, especially with recent dilution from a $500.2m follow on offering and further equity capacity filed. With a value score of 3 out of 6, very low current revenue and a DCF style estimate of future cash flow value of $201.25 per share that sits far above the present price, the range of outcomes around Amylyx Pharmaceuticals remains wide. This is why analyst targets between $20 and $57 vary so sharply despite anchoring to the same core clinical and commercial thesis.

    Result: Fair Value of $42.36 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the entire Amylyx Pharmaceuticals thesis leans heavily on a single LUCIDITY readout and the successful avexitide launch in a small, hard to define PBH market.

    Find out about the key risks to this Amylyx Pharmaceuticals narrative.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment on Amylyx Pharmaceuticals is split, with real enthusiasm on the upside and clear concerns on the downside. Move quickly and pressure test the numbers against the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.