Is ONE Gas (OGS) Undervalued Following Its Wolfe Conference Spotlight?

Conference spotlight puts ONE Gas in focus

ONE Gas (OGS) is stepping into the spotlight ahead of its appearance at the virtual Wolfe Research Utilities, Midstream & Clean Energy Conference on 29 September 2026, drawing fresh attention to the stock.

For context, ONE Gas shares trade at $72.36, with the 30 day share price return down 10.39% and the year to date share price return down 6.54%. The 3 year total shareholder return of 18.28% and 5 year total shareholder return of 25.01% point to steadier longer term progress as investors reassess near term risk ahead of the Wolfe conference and recent research coverage.

Scan regulated utilities with similar conference buzz and shifting sentiment by reviewing our curated 31 resilient stocks with low risk scores, which aim for resilience when markets reassess near term risk.

ONE Gas now trades well below the average analyst target and close to internal fair value estimates after a recent slide. So where does a reasonable valuation anchor for this utility actually sit?

Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

ONE Gas is trading at $72.36 against a narrative fair value of about $88.72, so the current quote sits well below that anchor while analysts highlight regulation and capital projects as key swing factors.

The capital intensive system integrity and expansion plan, including roughly US$800 million of 2026 investments and about US$4.3b over five years with projects such as the 43 mile Western Farmers pipeline, is set to increase the regulated rate base and can support future net income and EPS as these assets enter service.

Operational efficiency moves such as insourcing line locating and Watch and Protect work, along with AI based process automation that has reduced damages and saved labor hours, are intended to slow O&M growth toward the 3 to 4% target and support net margins if cost inflation moderates.

See why 0 investors see ONE Gas as 18% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $88.72 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the ONE Gas narrative can fray if heavy capital spending outpaces rate relief or if operating costs remain close to recent mid single digit increases.

Find out about the key risks to this ONE Gas narrative.

Another View: ONE Gas through the earnings lens

There is a twist. The same ONE Gas shares that look undervalued against the $88.72 narrative fair value also trade on a 15.8x P/E, which is richer than both peers at 13.5x and the global gas utilities group at 13.8x, yet below a fair ratio of 17.7x that the market could move toward.

For investors, that mix of a premium to current peers but discount to the fair ratio points to real valuation risk if growth or regulation disappoint, as well as potential upside if earnings track expectations. Which side of that trade off feels more realistic to you right now, given your own assumptions about the next few years?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With sentiment on ONE Gas feeling finely balanced between caution and optimism, this is a good time to review the details and decide where you stand. To weigh both sides of the story quickly, start with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond ONE Gas?

If ONE Gas has your attention, broaden your watchlist now and line up the next set of opportunities before the crowd starts paying attention.

• Target stability first and scan a list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results) that highlights businesses built on stronger financial footing.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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