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    NFI Group (TSX:NFI) Lands New York Bus Order, Is The 19% Upside Still There?

    Simply Wall St·10/08/2026 23:46:47
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    NFI Group stock: why a fresh New York City bus order matters now

    NFI Group (TSX:NFI) is back in focus after its Motor Coach Industries unit secured a contract to supply 92 D45 CRT commuter coaches to New York City Transit, backed by state and local funding.

    This fresh order, now sitting in NFI’s third quarter 2026 backlog, ties the business to one of North America’s largest transit networks and gives investors a concrete data point to weigh against recent share performance.

    Investors have treated NFI Group as a recovery story this year, with the share price at CA$25.41 and a year to date share price return of 57.83% alongside a 1-year total shareholder return of 64.68%, which suggests momentum has been building rather than fading.

    The New York City Transit contract lands after a period where shorter term moves, such as a 6.72% 30-day share price return and 3.55% 90-day share price return, hinted at improving sentiment toward the bus maker’s order pipeline and risk profile.

    Scan beyond NFI Group and see how other transit and industrial players stack up in our hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (7 results) that focus on durable fundamentals and financial resilience.

    NFI Group now has a large New York partner, a fuller backlog, and a share price that has already moved. The real tension is whether that combination is still attractively priced or already fully reflected.

    Most Popular Narrative: 19% Undervalued

    NFI Group’s most followed valuation view puts fair value at CA$31.54 against a last close of CA$25.41. This frames this new New York order against a market that still prices in a discount and a turnaround that analysts see as already in motion.

    Recent operational improvements, including supply chain normalization (reduction to only one high-risk supplier and increased parts availability), vertical integration initiatives, and U.K. facility consolidation efforts, are expected to enhance manufacturing efficiency and net margin expansion over the next several years.

    See why 24 investors see NFI Group as 19% undervalued.

    Analysts behind this narrative apply an 8.83% discount rate and arrive at a fair value that is 19.4% above the current share price. They also forecast revenue of $4.7b and earnings of $296.1m by 2029 to justify that number. The analyst group expects profit margins to move from 1.4% to 6.2% over three years and uses a future P/E of 11.8x on those earnings, which they compare to a current estimated fair P/E of 57.9x and the stock’s present P/E of 39.4x.

    For readers weighing NFI Group after the New York City Transit win, the key question is whether those efficiency gains, earnings projections, and margin assumptions feel realistic against risks like high leverage, tariff uncertainty, and pressure in the U.K. business, or whether the current CA$3.0b market cap already reflects enough of that recovery path.

    Result: Fair Value of CA$31.54 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the NFI Group story could change quickly if high leverage limits flexibility or if competitive pressure in the U.K. continues to weigh on volumes and profitability assumptions.

    Find out about the key risks to this NFI Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the mix of optimism and concern around NFI Group feels familiar, treat that as your cue to move fast, test the assumptions, and weigh the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond NFI Group?

    NFI Group may be front of mind today, but you do not want your watchlist tied to a single story when other opportunities could be taking shape.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.