BTC breaks 80,000 or a fake breakout, and may now plummet in Q4

According to Woofun AI, well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen strongly questioned Bitcoin's breakout of $80,000, believing that this was only an illusion, and reiterated his prediction that the market would weaken in the fourth quarter.

Cowen pointed out on his YouTube channel that mid-year Bitcoin usually bottomed out three times in February, summer, and the fourth quarter, and this pattern was verified in both 2018 and 2022. He believes that the current trend is more similar to 2019, rather than a high cycle of 54% maximum retracement and panic sell-offs.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, although rising energy prices, yields, and the US dollar exchange rate should have depressed the currency price, BTC rebounded rapidly after falling below $60,000 to $57,000. Now Cowen is worried that the upward process will repeat a similar trap, deceiving bulls above the range.

Cross-asset analogies further bolster their bearish view. Cowen compared the current situation to a false breakthrough after several years of turbulence for silver in 2011. Historical data shows that gold lows often occur from October to November, when 10-year US Treasury bond yields peak.

Furthermore, since the rate hike in September, the trend of BTC is very similar to the situation in March 2022, when the price initially rose and then fell again within a few weeks, suggesting that even if the recent performance is stronger than gold, the bottom may be delayed until the second half of the fourth quarter.

Cowen rejects an intermediate outcome, insisting that the cases of 2018 and 2022 prove that every midterm cycle actually bottoms out and is accompanied by unexpected fluctuations at the end. Investors should not ignore historical rules due to short-term new highs, and should be wary of the risk of a sharp market pullback in Q4.