Open source securities: the shortage of supply and demand in the industry continues to deepen, and the Q3 price increase of domestic MLCC manufacturers is expected to be realized

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report stating that global original factory price increases will continue throughout 2026, and the shortage of supply and demand in the MLCC industry will continue to deepen. This wave of MLCC price increases, in addition to relieving cost pressure from the original manufacturer's favorable price, is also the original manufacturer's decision to actively suppress medium- and low-capacity orders and free up production capacity to guarantee high-end supply in the face of high demand for AI servers with high capacity and ultra-high capacity through price increases. Domestic original manufacturers may see price increases in Q3, and the MLCC industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity for a long time. Overall, the widening gap between supply and demand clearly resonates with expectations of price increases, which is expected to drive the MLCC industry chain at home and abroad into a booming development channel of “sharp rise in volume and price”.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Samsung won the server-level long-term cooperation order, Murata structurally discontinued production, and the high-end MLCC gap may continue to expand

According to a report by the Shanghai Securities News, Samsung Electric recently revealed that it has signed MLCC and inductor supply contracts worth over 285 billion won (about US$212 million) with major global customers. This is another breakthrough after receiving 1.07 trillion won (about 796 million US dollars) of MLCC orders for AI servers throughout 2027 on September 1. At present, Samsung Electric has secured a total of 4 MLCC Long Term Cooperation orders extended to the end of 2027 during the year, with a total amount of 2.11 trillion won; in addition, it has also received orders for silicon capacitors worth about 1.5 trillion won. As global demand for AI computing power grows, the MLCC production capacity gap with high capacity and above may continue to expand: on the one hand, Samsung has signed several LTAs extended to 2027 to lock in 2027 production capacity, confirming that demand for AI server-level MLCCs is still scarce; on the other hand, Murata initiated product line optimization in FY2026 to clearly discontinue production of specific consumer and vehicle grade materials such as GRM and GCM, or free up production capacity to move to ultra-high capacity products, but its official schedule shows that customers will need to wait until the end of 2027, and extend the final order (LTB) until 2028 and March, at the most The end Shipment ends in 2029, and this long EOL timeline proves that it will take a long period of time to convert and expand production capacity from consumer grade and vehicle level to AI server level.

Global original factory prices continued to rise throughout 2026, and the shortage of supply and demand in the MLCC industry continued to deepen

Since 2026, the global trend of price increases for MLCC manufacturers has continued to deepen, and price increase letters have been implemented one by one since February. In February, Guoju took the lead in increasing the price of high-voltage and high-capacity MLCCs by 10%-20%; in March, Murata adjusted prices for AI servers and high-end automotive-grade products by 15%-35%; in April, Taiyo Yuden raised 6%-13% for low-capacity consumer and automotive MLCCs, and Samsung Electric followed suit; in June, Huaxinke followed suit. In July, Guoju began a full series of increases to ease the cost pressure of high-level operation of upstream raw materials; in August, the shipping prices of all categories of Samsung Electric were uniformly raised by 30%, triggering preventative hoarding by agents, and a divergence between supply and demand, where “ODM orders declined and channels increased.” According to Jibang Consulting, it is expected that the price of consumer grade medium to high capacity will still rise by 10%-20% in Q4. Samsung Electric plans to increase the price of consumer-grade X5RMLCC customers by an average of 25% to 30% in 2026Q4, partly to reduce orders and release production capacity for high-end production. The bank believes that this wave of MLCC price increases, in addition to easing cost pressure with the original manufacturer's favorable price, is also the original manufacturer's decision to actively suppress medium- and low-capacity orders and free up production capacity to guarantee high-end supply in the face of high demand for high-capacity and ultra-high-capacity AI servers through price increases.

Domestic original manufacturers may see price increases in Q3, and the MLCC industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity for a long time

The bank believes that the original domestic MLCC manufacturers were previously in a global price depression, and the price adjustment dividends of various manufacturers from June to August were not yet reflected in the financial report for the first half of 2026. As Q3 price increases are concentrated, the third quarter results of domestic original manufacturers are expected to usher in strong year-on-month growth; looking forward to the continuation, 2026Q4-2027H1 domestic and foreign original manufacturers may set off a new wave of price increases. Looking at the supply and demand pattern, the global production capacity gap for high-volume products may increase further due to the dual effects of Samsung's long-term cooperation locking in production capacity in 2027 and Murata's conversion volume, and is expected to continue to expand in 2027, creating a golden window for domestic original manufacturers to accelerate customer entry and share growth. Overall, the widening gap between supply and demand clearly resonates with expectations of price increases, which is expected to drive the MLCC industry chain at home and abroad into a booming development channel of “sharp rise in volume and price”.

Investment advice

Beneficial targets: (1) Domestic MLCC original manufacturers: Sanhuan Group, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Xinwei Communications, Torch Electronics, Yunzuka Technology, etc.; (2) Upstream material manufacturers: Jiemei Technology, Boqian New Materials, China Porcelain Materials, etc.

Risk warning: AI industry development falls short of expectations, raw material price increases risk, production expansion falls short of expectations, technology research and development falls short of expectations