Guoxin Securities: High oil prices fluctuated in September, and there is still a gap between supply and demand for refined oil products
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that in late September, Iran submitted a new negotiation draft, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline gradually resumed, navigation in the strait resumed, and at the same time, Saudi Arabia increased ship-to-ship transfers, and oil prices fluctuated downward. Affected by the US-Israel war, the Brent and WTI oil price centers are expected to be 80-100 US dollars/barrel in 2026. The upstream oil and gas extraction sector is expected to maintain a high boom, and the profits of refining and chemical companies with overseas production capacity and export qualifications are expected to improve.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Oil price review
In September 2026, the average price of Brent futures was 102.1 US dollars/barrel, up 13.7 US dollars/barrel and closed at 103.5 US dollars/barrel; the average spot price of Brent was 117.2 US dollars/barrel, up 25.6 US dollars/barrel from month to month, closing at 120.7 US dollars/barrel. The average price of WTI futures was 95.5 US dollars/barrel, up 12.9 US dollars/barrel from month to month. The war in the Middle East resumed in early September. The Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East heated up, and the Brent oil futures price once rose to 110 US dollars/barrel; in mid-September, Saudi Arabia announced the restart of the East-West oil pipeline, supply fears cooled down, and oil prices fell slightly to around 100 US dollars/barrel; in late September, Iran submitted a new negotiation draft. The Saudi East-West pipeline gradually resumed navigation, and at the same time increased Saudi ship-to-ship transfers, and oil prices fluctuated.
Supply side
Since July, the US has lifted the exemption from selling oil to Iran. Subsequently, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis imposed a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia. Drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline led to limited capacity, and crude oil exports through the Strait of Mande came to a standstill, threatening the supply of about 4 million b/day of crude oil in the short term. However, crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern oil producers rebounded to 12.8 million b/d in September, the highest level since the US-Israel conflict broke out at the end of February. In the future, we should continue to pay attention to the news of the US-Iran peace talks, which will affect traffic conditions and supply in the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mande.
Demand side
Major international energy agencies expect crude oil demand to change to (-250) -380,000 b/day in 2026, and crude oil demand is expected to increase by 236-2.6 million b/d in 2027: According to the latest monthly reports of OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand is expected to increase by +38, -250, and -1.68 million b/d in 2025, respectively; crude oil demand in 2027 will increase by 236, 260, and 2.38 million b/day, respectively, compared to 2026.
Inventory side
The EIA predicts that global crude oil will be removed from storage by about 3 million b/day in the third quarter. By the end of September, US crude oil inventories will drop to 711 million barrels, and strategic oil reserves will drop to 284 million barrels, all the lowest since 1983. The OECD inventory is expected to fall to 2.3 billion barrels by the end of 2026, the lowest since 2003.
Risk warning:
Raw material price fluctuations; product price fluctuations; downstream demand falls short of expectations, etc.