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    Tomra Systems (OB:TOM) After The Sell Off Is The PPWR Story Still Backing Fair Value

    Simply Wall St·10/09/2026 11:44:54
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    Tomra Systems (OB:TOM) has come under pressure recently, with the share price down 4.4% on the day and lower over the past month and past 3 months. Investors are reassessing what today’s 88.85 NOK close implies for valuation and long term expectations.

    That 1 day share price drop sits on top of a much tougher stretch for Tomra Systems, with the share price down 9.8% over the past 30 days and the year to date share price return falling 34.9%, contributing to a 36.6% decline in 1 year total shareholder return. Recent weakness suggests investors are marking down expectations or assigning a higher risk premium. It continues a longer slide that has left the 5 year total shareholder return down 60.9%, so momentum has clearly been fading rather than building.

    Scan how Tomra Systems stacks up against other potential rebound candidates by reviewing our hand picked list of 179 high quality undervalued stocks.

    Tomra Systems now trades well below where many investors had it pencilled in not long ago. Does the balance of risk and potential reward still look appealing at this price once the valuation is unpacked?

    Most Popular Narrative: 64% Undervalued

    A widely followed narrative around Tomra Systems anchors on a fair value of NOK243.43 per share, far above the recent NOK88.85 close. That gap raises a clear question for you as an investor, which is whether the current price reflects short term disappointment or a deeper change in the long term story.

    Tomra Systems ASA is a Norwegian based industrial machinery maker that generates most of its revenues from machines and sensors for collection (56%), food (25%) and recycling waste materials (17%), with total 2025 net revenue of €1,318 million. The company is set to benefit from the European Union's Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), which became mandatory on August 12, 2026, setting strict new sustainability, labeling and reduction standards for all packaging in EU countries. In Portugal, for example, where I live, I can testify that PPWR is already effective and you can see Tomra machines in many places and people using them extensively. Insiders of Tomra Systems have been net buyers of the company’s shares lately. For example, CEO Tove Andersen bought 17,650 shares on 29/5/2026 and CFO Eva Sagemo bought 5,430 shares on the same date, and many more insiders such as EVPs and administrators have been buyers recently. Note: they are purchasing shares, not receiving company employee offers or grants. They may believe the company is undervalued after a significant decline from its peak and see potential ahead. Large European countries such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain will have to implement PPWR in some form, and Tomra Systems is positioned in the market for waste recycling machines. Other countries outside the EU are observing and may follow this mechanism.

    See why 4 investors see Tomra Systems as 64% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of NOK243.43 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, this optimistic Tomra Systems narrative could unravel if PPWR rollout is slower or softer than expected, or if insider buying cools abruptly.

    Find out about the key risks to this Tomra Systems narrative.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment around Tomra Systems is clearly split, so consider reviewing the data first hand and decide where you land on its risk reward trade off by weighing up the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Tomra Systems?

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    • Dial back portfolio risk by filtering for resilient businesses with strong financial foundations using the Simply Wall St 225 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.