Nat-Gas Prices Rise as Hurricane Isaias Curbs US Nat-Gas Production

November Nymex natural gas (NGX26) on Friday closed up +0.052 (+1.64%).

Nat-gas prices settled higher on Friday as Hurricane Isaias approached, prompting closure of nat-gas rigs in the Gulf and a reduction in US gas production.  US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday fell to 109.3 bcf/day, the lowest since January. The Marine Minerals Administration reported that 1.259 billion cubic feet of US nat-gas production, or 59% of total output, was shut in the US Gulf as of Friday afternoon.

Gains in nat-gas prices were limited Friday as forecasts for above-average US temperatures could potentially curb heating demand for nat-gas.  The Commodity Weather Group said Friday that above-average temperatures are expected across most of the US through October 13.

US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 109.3 bcf/day (+0.7% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 6.3 bcf/day (-4.6% y/y), according to BNEF.  Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 19.2 bcf/day (+10.3% w/w), according to BNEF.

As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended October 3 rose +3.32% y/y to 83,661 GWh (gigawatt-hours).  Also, US electricity output in the 52 weeks ending October 2 rose +3.27% y/y to 4,414,135 GWh.

A bearish medium-term factor for nat-gas prices is the market's expectation that a “Super El Niño” will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere this fall and winter, reducing heating demand for nat-gas. 

As a bearish factor, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 11 projected that US nat-gas storage levels will swell to 3,985 bcf at the end of October, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.  On September 21, the EIA raised its 2027 US dry natural gas production estimate to 116.0 bcf/day from 115.3 bcf/day projected in July.

Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices, showing an +85 bcf increase in US nat-gas inventories for the week ended October 2, above expectations of +82 but below the 5-year weekly average of +96 bcf.  As of October 2, nat-gas inventories were down -3.9% y/y and +2.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of October 6, gas storage in Europe was 73% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended October 9 fell by 1 to 132 rigs, down from a 3-year high of 135 rigs on September 25.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.