Homrich & Berg sees 3M10Y yield curve spread signaling low recession risk over next year

• Homrich & Berg analysis flagged a sharp divergence in Treasury curve signals, with 2Y10Y narrowing to 20 bps in September.
• At the same time, 3M10Y widened to 120 bps, a configuration it said points to low recession risk over the next year.
• The note said 3M10Y has historically been a cleaner recession-timing gauge than 2Y10Y, with fewer false alarms.
• It also highlighted a 3M10Y-under-2Y10Y cross as a confirmation tool; the related 3M2Y spread is widening, not inverting.
• Curve pricing implies policy is not yet restrictive for growth, though the 2-year outlook suggests additional hikes could push conditions toward too tight.

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