Walsh Soybean Opportunities - Pure Hedge
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Soybeans traded lower initially after the release of the October WASDE this morning but reversed off the 50-day moving average and closed the day higher but still below $13. Soybean production was estimated at 4.562 billion bushels (+27 mb above September), which would be a new record if realized. The average pre-report trade estimate for production was 4.538 bb versus 4.261 billion bushels in 2025.
Soybean yield was also estimated at a record at 53.1 bushels per acre. Ending stocks were raised 5 million bushels to 315 mb. Stocks-to-use is up very slightly from 6.8% to 6.9%. Despite the unfriendly report, soybean meal reversed more than $10 off the low of the day as well. Now that the October report is out of the way, the next catalysts will be Chinese demand and South American planting. Roughly half of the 25 MMT export target has been completed thus far. Estimates for Brazil’s 2026/27 crop vary wildly. The USDA estimates Brazil’s production at 186.0 MMT, while multiple forecasters have production in the 180-183 range, and the low estimate is 173.7 MMT.
Contact me for opportunities in soybeans going forward. You can reach me at 312-765-7311 or hschmit@walshtrading.com.
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Hans Schmit
Broker, Pure Hedge Division
312-765-7311
hschmit@walshtrading.com
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