Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock May Trade Above Fair Value After A 97% Gain

Nasdaq has almost doubled investors' money over the past three years, which puts a sharper spotlight on a simple question for today: Is a share price around this level still aligned with what the business is earning?

• The near 97.5% return over three years puts long term holders in a strong position, so fresh buyers now have to ask how much of Nasdaq's earnings power is already reflected in that gain.
• The push into AI tooling through Nasdaq Calypso and the early synergy progress from the Adenza acquisition can shape how investors think about the pace and durability of future profit streams that underpin any P/E based view.
• There is a second opinion on Nasdaq worth weighing. See what analysts think Nasdaq's shares could be worth.

For investors, the debate is whether Nasdaq's current share price is adequately backed by the earnings the company generates today.

If you like testing whether a price near US$93.65 is backed by real earnings power, it can help to run the same check across 28 high quality undervalued stocks.

Has Nasdaq Run Too Far on Earnings?

The P/E ratio suits Nasdaq because earnings remain the main lens most investors use for exchange and market infrastructure groups. At a current P/E of 26.6x, the stock trades close to the peer average of 26.1x and well below the wider capital markets industry on 39.2x, which places the focus on how durable the current earnings base really is.

On a more tailored yardstick that links the multiple to Nasdaq's own growth profile, margins, market size and risk, the present P/E screens above the level implied by those fundamentals, which flags the shares as overvalued on this model. Because the Adenza and Nasdaq Calypso AI rollouts have raised expectations around future earnings quality, the current P/E already asks investors to pay a premium for those initiatives rather than treat them as a free option on potential upside. Explore the numbers behind Nasdaq's P/E valuation.

The Nasdaq Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the valuation puzzle for Nasdaq leaves off and describe which future paths for growth, profitability and earnings would need to occur for the shares to be worth meaningfully more or meaningfully less than they are today on Nasdaq's Community page. Each narrative links its number to a concrete view on how expansion, margins and business risk could change next, giving you a reference point you can return to as fresh information becomes available.

One of the top community narratives on Nasdaq: 15% undervalued

"The broader Financial Technology division reported 15% revenue growth and 16% ARR growth in Q2 2026, along with 58 new clients and 107 upsells."

Discover why this Narrative puts Nasdaq at 15% undervalued.

Nasdaq’s share price is only one piece of the decision

There is one more angle you should check before you get comfortable with Nasdaq: who inside the business has been selling, on what scale, and what that might signal for you next. See the recent insider selling flagged for Nasdaq.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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