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    ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) Gains On UBS Upgrade As Fair Value Stays In Focus

    Simply Wall St·10/10/2026 15:29:22
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    ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) has swung back into focus after UBS upgraded the steel producer, pointing to new EU import quotas that may restrict supply while blast furnace restarts reshape the regional market backdrop.

    The UBS upgrade follows a sharp move in the ArcelorMittal share price, with a 1-day return of 5.64% and a year-to-date return of 43.70%, surrounding a recent pullback that saw the 30-day share price return fall 13.76%.

    Scan how ArcelorMittal compares with other steel and materials players facing similar quota shifts by reviewing our hand picked 174 high quality undervalued stocks.

    After a 79.66% total return over the past year and a sharp bounce on the UBS upgrade, ArcelorMittal now sits at a more demanding entry point. Investors may wish to consider whether the current valuation still offers an attractive opportunity for new buyers.

    Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued

    Against a last close of €57.28, the most followed narrative places ArcelorMittal’s fair value at €68.03, implying a material valuation gap that investors are weighing against execution and macro risks.

    Market reforms in Europe, including potential implementation of new trade defense mechanisms and a carbon border adjustment (CBAM), are expected to reduce unfair imports and materially improve utilization rates, supporting both revenue growth and net margins.

    Strategic investments in green steel production (EAFs, DRI technology, renewable-backed projects) and early execution of decarbonization projects position ArcelorMittal to capture premium, higher-margin demand from eco-conscious customers, driving margin expansion and supporting long-term earnings.

    See why 26 investors see ArcelorMittal as 16% undervalued.

    The fair value narrative is built using a 7.82% discount rate and assumes revenue growth of about 6.3% a year with profit margins eventually reaching 7.6%. It also factors in analyst expectations that earnings could rise from about $1.8b today to $5.7b, while the share count gradually declines through buybacks.

    Those inputs lead to an implied 2029 P/E of 12.4x to back the €68.03 fair value, compared with stronger multiples that analysts currently apply to the broader metals and mining space. That framing helps explain why ArcelorMittal can screen as both cheaper than some peers and still more expensive than the wider European industry on simple P/E snapshots.

    Result: Fair Value of €68.03 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, concentrated operations in Ukraine facing missile damage and heavy green transition spending could both disrupt ArcelorMittal’s cash generation and challenge the case for a 16% undervaluation.

    Find out about the key risks to this ArcelorMittal narrative.

    Next Steps

    Feeling optimistic about ArcelorMittal after the UBS move and the fair value gap, or cautious about execution risks and capital demands? Act quickly, review the underlying numbers, and then judge the balance of potential upside for yourself through the 3 key rewards.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond ArcelorMittal?

    If ArcelorMittal has sharpened your focus on opportunities, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas tailored to different objectives.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.