According to the Galaxy Securities Research Report, China's overall coal supply and demand will be tight in 2026, and coal prices will rise at the center. In terms of the domestic market, the coal price center has gradually risen over the past year after “anti-domestic” overproduction checks in the second half of 2025, Indonesia's export restrictions in the first half of 2026, the US-Iran conflict driving up international energy prices, stricter safety regulations after the coal accident in Shanxi, and the continued failure to resume production. The research report believes that supply constraints still exist, while demand for electric coal, chemical coal, etc. is expected to increase compared to last year, and coal prices are expected to continue to rise. According to the 2026 Mid-Term Strategy Report, it is estimated that the market price center for 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao will be 800-900 yuan/ton in 2026, higher than the average annual price in 2025, and is expected to rise further during the peak winter season.

According to the Galaxy Securities Research Report, China's overall coal supply and demand will be tight in 2026, and coal prices will rise at the center. In terms of the domestic market, the coal price center has gradually risen over the past year after “anti-domestic” overproduction checks in the second half of 2025, Indonesia's export restrictions in the first half of 2026, the US-Iran conflict driving up international energy prices, stricter safety regulations after the coal accident in Shanxi, and the continued failure to resume production. The research report believes that supply constraints still exist, while demand for electric coal, chemical coal, etc. is expected to increase compared to last year, and coal prices are expected to continue to rise. According to the 2026 Mid-Term Strategy Report, it is estimated that the market price center for 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao will be 800-900 yuan/ton in 2026, higher than the average annual price in 2025, and is expected to rise further during the peak winter season.