Decline narrows to 53%: Bitcoin cycle reshaping and new bull market signals

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a critical transition from sharp fluctuations to mature stability. BloFin Research analysts believe that despite short-term selling pressure, the price has rebounded above the 50-week moving average, marking the potential start of a new bull market cycle.

Technical verification shows that Bitcoin was close to $78,800 and regained stability at this moving average level in September, then trading above $86,000 in early October. This trend is highly consistent with technical signals from the beginning of the 2015, 2019, and 2023 bull markets.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the MVRV ratio, which measures market value, rose to 1.54 as of October 11, which is higher than the 365-day average of 1.44, indicating that despite short-term selling pressure, the cost advantage of long-term holders is expanding, and market strength is increasing significantly. This is consistent with the characteristics of the early days of the historical bull market.

The evolution of the cyclical structure revealed a systematic decline in volatility. From a high of $124,824 in October 2025 to a low of $58,525 in June 2026, the decline was about 53%, far below the depth of the previous bear market;

Meanwhile, the increase in the bull market declined sharply from 530 times in the early days to 8 times recently. If June is the bottom, the current bear market will last only 8 months, which is shorter than the historical average of 12 to 13 months. This change is partly due to the pattern of halving. Bitcoin peaked about 18 months after being halved in April 2024, in line with the traditional cyclical rhythm, but the compression in amplitude indicates that the market is becoming rational.

Fundamental support mainly comes from a surge in long-term holdings and the stabilization of institutional holdings. As of September, about 16.64 million bitcoins (accounting for 83% of the circulating supply) had not been traded for at least 155 days, indicating significant chip accumulation. As of October 2, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT.US) held 1.3 million units, and listed companies held 1.29 million units, accounting for a total of 13%.

However, last week's $6.79 billion ETF outflow revealed the fragility of institutional demand. Bitcoin's price was around $83,000 on October 11. Although above the September EMA breakout and June low, the bullish logic will be challenged if it falls below the 50-week EMA or the key support of $58,525. While the market is transitioning to a stable state, there may still be a sharp correction due to capital outflows.