UBS Sees 'Modest' Sequential Rise in Nestlé's Q3 Real Internal Growth Amid 'Challenging' Comparisons

02:25 AM EDT, 10/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS Global Research models a "modest" sequential rise in Nestlé's (NESN.SW) third-quarter real internal growth, or RIG, at 1.9%, even as the Swiss food and beverage giant faces a "challenging" 190-basis-point year-over-year comparison. The projected figure beats the consensus of 1.5% and Nestlé's second-quarter 1.8% result, UBS said in a third-quarter preview note focused on the European food and home personal care sectors. The minor outperformance is expected as second-quarter pressures are anticipated to ease and the Nestlé Waters & Premium Beverages division is projected to contribute 20 basis points to the group's RIG, driven by a "warm" European summer and a "favorable" prior-year comparison. For the quarter, analysts also project an organic sales growth of 3.6%, compared with the company-compiled consensus of 3.4% and the 3.7% increase recorded in the previous three-month period. "This robust RIG performance against a challenging basis of comparison should reflect: 1) easing adverse impacts from the Infant Milk Formula recall, Petcare destocking in the US, customer dispute in Europe and Starbucks' price elasticity; 2) limited changes in trading conditions in Q3 vs Q2, as in, still weak consumer environment in the US and challenging retail backdrop in Europe but no marked sequential deteriorations," the research firm said. Nestlé is scheduled to publish its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 22. UBS has a neutral rating on the stock.