JPMorgan Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jamie Dimon Say?
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) reports third-quarter earnings Tuesday before the opening bell, with Wall Street expecting strong profit growth even as higher interest rates and cooling trading activity worry investors.
Polymarket gives JPMorgan a 97% chance of reporting GAAP earnings above $5.88 per share, a hurdle five cents below analysts’ $5.93 consensus. Revenue is expected to reach $51.23 billion.
Traders have wagered over $30,000 on Kalshi contracts predicting what CEO Jamie Dimon and other executives will say during the 8:30 a.m. ET earnings call.
What Kalshi Predicts JPMorgan Will Say
“Trading” leads at 95%. JPMorgan’s markets revenue surged 35% year over year in the second quarter, including an 86% jump in equities trading.
The Financial Times expects five major Wall Street banks to generate $38 billion in trading revenue in the third quarter, down from a record $47 billion in the second quarter but still 13% above a year earlier.
JPMorgan Co-President Doug Petno warned in September that trading would slip from the second quarter. He still forecast mid-to-high-teens growth in both markets revenue and investment banking fees from a year earlier.
“Inflation” trades at 89%, while “Hike / Hiked” sits at 56%. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5%.
Higher rates can boost lending income but also increase what JPMorgan must pay depositors.
“Buyback / Buy Back” trades at 87%. JPMorgan authorized a new $50 billion share repurchase program in June, giving management considerable scope to return capital to shareholders.
“Credit Card” trades at 65%. JPMorgan expects fewer losses on credit-card loans this year than previously forecast, lowering its expected loss rate from 3.4% to 3.2% in July as customers kept up with payments better than anticipated.
“Apple” is at 55%. JPMorgan agreed in January to take over the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) credit-card program from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., involving more than $20 billion in balances. The transition is expected to take approximately two years.
What Kalshi Predicts JPMorgan Will Skip
“Rate Cut / Cut Rates” sits at just 18%, compared with 56% for “Hike / Hiked.” On Polymarket, the odds of an October rate hike have plunged from around 70% in late September to 20%, but a cut remains below 1%. Traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady.
“Blockchain” is at 15%, despite JPMorgan’s Kinexys blockchain platform processing more than $7 billion in transactions daily on average. Petno said in September that institutional demand for stablecoins remained limited.
Reading the Board
JPMorgan raised its full-year outlook in July to $105.5 billion in net interest income and $107.5 billion in adjusted expenses.
UBS analyst Erika Najarian says investors want reassurance on deposit costs, loan growth and the investment banking pipeline.
Options imply a 3.17% post-earnings move, equivalent to approximately $28 billion in market value, according to Benzinga Pro.
Polymarket traders overwhelmingly expect JPMorgan to clear its earnings hurdle. Whether the bank can maintain trading growth while managing higher deposit costs may matter more for the stock.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
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