Stocks Mixed on Lower Crude Prices and Weakness in Chipmakers
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.04% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.37%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.04%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are down -0.40%.
Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 3-week high and the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1.5-week low. Stocks are finding support today as WTI crude oil prices fell -1%, knocking T-note yields lower. Also, comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller boosted T-note prices when he said the recent surge in long-term bond yields is helping to curb demand in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, such as housing and automobiles, doing some of the Fed's work to tighten monetary policy. Waller’s comments suggest he favors holding policy steady at the FOMC meeting later this month. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4 bp to 5.20%.
Broader market gains are limited today, and the Nasdaq 100 is under pressure from weakness in chipmakers amid concerns that investment in artificial intelligence may not be sustainable due to safety concerns and signs of funding strain. Also, a selloff in South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix knocked South Korea’s Kospi Index down more than -5% today to a 2.5-month low amid concerns over intensifying competition from China, adding additional pressure to chip stocks.
Hawkish comments today from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee limited the decline in T-note yields when he said inflation tied to the AI boom is "jumping out of its lane" and starting to push up prices in unrelated corners of the economy.
Stocks have support from the prospect of solid quarterly earnings results starting this week. Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its three-month view on global equity markets to overweight from neutral, saying. “Earnings growth remains supportive for equities and the recent valuation de-rating has improved asymmetry into the third-quarter earnings season.”
According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 profits are expected to climb by +25% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. Q3 earnings season begins this week when US money center banks report.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 global GDP forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July and kept its 2026 global consumer price forecast unchanged from July at 4.7%.
Nov WTI crude oil prices (CLX26) are down more than -1% today, giving back some of Monday’s +2% increase as Saudi crude output recovered. Saudi Arabia said its Sep crude production rose by +2 million bpd (+40% m/m) to 8.732 million bpd, recovering from a 36-year low in August. Goldman Sachs estimates a $24-a-barrel risk premium in crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. However, if Europe releases half the diesel it has announced from reserves, fair value prices could fall by about $11 a barrel.
Markets are discounting a 19% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.41%. China's Shanghai Composite recovered from a 2.5-month low and closed up +0.10%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 1.5-week low and closed down -1.82%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up by +6 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.8 bp to 5.200%. Dec T-notes rose to a 1-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 5.171%. Today’s -1% decline in WTI crude oil has lowered inflation expectations and boosted T-note prices. Also, dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher supported T-note prices when he said the recent surge in long-term bond yields is doing some of the Fed’s work to tighten monetary policy, suggesting he favors holding policy steady at the FOMC meeting later this month. T-notes fell back from their best level after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation is still too high.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 3.426% and is down -3.0 bp to 3.447%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -3.5 bp to 5.405%.
Markets are discounting an 11% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling for a second session today, weighing on the overall market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -1% to a 3-week low. Western Digital (WDC) is down more than -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) is down more than -5%. Also, Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -4%, and Applied Materials (AMAT), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Sandisk (SNDK) are down more than -3%. In addition, ARM Holdings (ARM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Lumentum Holdings (LITE) are down more than -2%.
Software stocks are up today, helping limit losses in the broader market. Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials, and Atlassian Corp (TEAM), ServiceNow (NOW), and IBM (IBM) are up more than +2%. Also, Adobe Systems (ADBE), Datadog (DDOG), Intuit (INTU), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Thomson Reuters (TRI) are up more than +1%.
Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) is down more than -17% after saying its MAXPIRe Phase 2 trial of its axatilimab to treat idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis failed to meet its primary endpoint.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is down more than -7% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after forecasting full-year sales of $101.00 billion to $101.40 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $101.24 billion.
SentinelOne (S) is down more than -2% after announcing that it intends to offer $1.25 billion in convertible senior notes due in 2031 via private placement.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) is up more than +3% after its Board of Directors approved a $500 million stock buyback plan.
Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +2%, adding to Monday’s +3% gain, after releasing a new artificial intelligence model called Muse Wonder, which the company claims has “frontier capabilities.”
VF Corp (VFC) is up more than +2% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral and Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is up more than +1% after reporting Q3 equities and trading revenue of $6.44 billion, well above the consensus of $5.09 billion.
Earnings Reports (10/13/2026)
Albertsons Cos Inc (ACI), Citigroup Inc (C), Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ), Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.