Arm (ARM.US) bucked the trend and rose slightly: Qualcomm (QCOM.US) lawsuit ferments, AI spending concerns surfaced

According to Woofun AI, Arm Holdings (ARM.US) performed uniquely in a market environment where the semiconductor sector declined overall on Tuesday, and its stock price bucked the trend and recorded a slight increase. Behind this abnormal trend, the market is intertwined with deep concerns about the sustainability of AI-related spending, as well as the continuing volatile effects caused by previous lawsuits with Qualcomm (QCOM.US).

Macro market sentiment was sluggish, with the Nasdaq index falling 0.56%, the S&P 500 falling 0.13%, and the tech sector falling 0.6%. In this context, Broadcom (AVGO.US) CEO Hawke Tan's remarks at the Singapore DBS Asia Future Forum on Monday attracted attention. He bluntly stated that many investors set extremely high expectations but lacked awareness, just like casino gambling, and pointed out that capital may be the biggest limiting factor. Research released by the Brookings Institution in September further quantifies this risk, predicting that US AI infrastructure spending will reach $10.3 trillion by 2032, accounting for an average of 3.63% of the US GDP per year.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, such huge capital expenditure expectations are becoming a sword of Damocles hanging over technology stocks.

Uncertainty at the legal level has also increased market volatility. On Friday, a Delaware jury began hearing Qualcomm (QCOM.US)'s case against Arm (ARM.US). Qualcomm (QCOM.US) accuses Arm (ARM.US) of violating the license agreement and intentionally disrupting its business dealings with Meta (formerly Facebook) (META.US). This is the second legal action between the two parties in two years. In this five-day federal trial in Wilmington, the dispute focused on a structural license agreement valid until 2033.

From a technical perspective, although the stock price of Arm (ARM.US) is above the 200-day simple moving average ($221.53), it is 13.5% lower than the 20-day simple moving average ($290.20) and 7.2% lower than the 50-day simple moving average ($270.41), showing a retracement in an upward trend. The gold fork that appeared in April (the 50-day EMA crossing the 200-day EMA) set a long-term upward trend, although the stock price retreated from the September high. Given that the stock hit a 52-week high of $452.70 in June and hit a 52-week low of $100.02 in February, there was significant volatility. As of Tuesday, Arm (ARM.US) shares rose 0.94% to $257.65. Whether the 50-day EMA support can be stabilized again will be a key variable in the subsequent trend.