China Merchants Securities: Starting a New Chapter in the Stock Market, Accelerating Overseas Expansion Resonates with Structural Upgrades
The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that the two-wheel and special vehicle industry is at a strategic point of industrial transformation and global competition. Currently, the three major racing tracks for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles, and electric bicycles all benefit from export growth and product structure upgrades (large displacement of motorcycles, high-end all-terrain vehicles, electric motorcycle/intelligence of two-wheeled electric vehicles), and the industry is gradually moving from “scale expansion” to “high-quality growth.” It is recommended to focus on industry-related investment opportunities.
The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
Motorcycle industry: Domestic structure has been upgraded, overseas share has increased, and the industry has moved from “large-scale expansion” to “high-quality growth”. Industry structure upgrade: Motorcycle consumption is being upgraded from traditional transportation demand to leisure, entertainment, and high-quality consumption, driving a rapid increase in sales in high-displacement markets. In 2025, sales of 250cc and above models reached 952,000 units, +25.9% year-on-year. Among them, sales of models above 500cc were +107.6% year-on-year, making it the fastest growing segment in the industry. Compared to mature markets in Europe and the US, there is a big gap in the penetration rate of medium- and large-displacement motorcycles in China, and there is still plenty of room to improve the penetration rate of domestic sales/exports with large displacement. Strong export boom: The growth momentum of the industry is gradually shifting from domestic demand to export demand. According to data from the Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, in 2025, China exported 13.366 million motorcycles, up 21.3% year on year; the export value was 8.85 billion US dollars, up 26.78% year on year. The export scale reached a record high in nearly five years, and overseas sales accounted for 60.8% of the industry's total sales volume. Among them, the growth rate of high-displacement exports was particularly impressive. In 2023-2025, 250cc+ exports were 19.8/35.9/535,000 vehicles respectively, +54.9%/+81.3%/+49.0% year-on-year, and the export market is transforming from “scale expansion” to “value increase”. Leading barriers are deep: in 2025, the CR3 for fuel/electric/high-displacement (500cc+) motorcycles will be 29%, 56%, and 85%, respectively, and leading companies have obvious advantages.
All-terrain vehicle industry: All-terrain vehicles are special vehicle racing tracks with both entertainment and utility attributes, and are a typical export-oriented industry. More than 90% of domestic products are sold overseas, and domestic manufacturers quickly seize market share with their high cost performance advantages. The investment logic revolves around two main lines: high-end product upgrading: the export volume CAGR in 2021-2025 was about 1.7%, but the export value CAGR reached 11.6%. Against the backdrop of high export volume consolidation, export value continued to increase, fully confirming that the product structure of domestic automakers continues to be optimized and accelerated towards high-value-added models such as UTV/SSV. The leading share is highly concentrated: the industry has obvious characteristics of “one super strong”. Chunfeng Power, Taotao Auto, and Chongqing Runtong account for 73.6% of the country's exports, and 82.5% of the export value. Among them, Chunfeng Power alone has a monopoly of 74.0% of the country's exports, ranking first in the country for many years.
Electric two-wheeler industry: The investment logic of electric two-wheeler racetracks revolves around “switching and reshaping the pattern in the short term, focusing on intelligence and high-end in the medium term, and looking at the second curve in the long term”. The new national standard accelerates the concentration of the competitive pattern: the new national standard comprehensively raises the requirements for Sandian technology, intelligent, and compliant production, and accelerates the clearance of backward production capacity. Domestic sales market CR3 reached 56.6% in 2025. Traditional brands (Yadi/Emma) maintain their advantage in the mass price band with channel+ supply chain; intelligent brands (No. 9/ Maverick) form a differentiated advantage in the high-end price range above 4,000 yuan. Electric motorcycle upgrade+intelligent reshaping of the valuation system: The new national standard has stricter compliance requirements for electric bicycles, and performance requirements spill over to electric motorcycles. According to the 2026 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's 407th batch announcement, brands such as Yadi, No. 9, Emma, Maverick, and Extreme Nuclear will centrally declare new electric motorcycle products, and the two-wheeler market will form a “electric self-cooling, electric motorcycle rising” consumption trend in the first half of 2026. Going overseas became the second curve: in 2025, 26.72 million electric two-wheelers were exported (+20.8%), with an export value of 48.9 billion yuan (+18.1%), a record high. In 2026, H1 exports maintained high growth, with an export volume of 15.97 million vehicles (+30.9%) and an export value of 31.7 billion yuan (+31.5%). The export boom was far higher than that of the domestic demand market.
[Investment Suggestions]
Going overseas is the greatest common denominator of the three tracks. China's two-wheel/special vehicle industry is developing a global expansion path with a complete supply chain+extreme cost performance+technological iterative advantages. High-ending/intelligence is the core source of long-term competitiveness and profit flexibility for enterprises. Large motorcycle displacement, UTV/SSV all-terrain vehicles, and electric motorization/intelligence of two-wheeled electric vehicles each represent the product structure upgrade direction of each racetrack. It is recommended to focus on overseas & structural opportunities in the two-wheel/special vehicle industry; in the motorcycle sector, focus on Qianjiang Motor (000913.SZ); all-terrain vehicle exports focus on Chunfeng Power (603129.SH) and Taotao Vehicle Industry (301345.SZ); in the field of electric bicycles, it is recommended to focus on Yadi Holdings (01585), Emma Technology (603529.SH), No. 9 Company - W (689009.SH), Maverick Electric, Xinri (), etc. 603787.SH
[Risk Reminder]
The risk of changing the new national standard, the risk of tariff policy changes, the risk of increased industry competition, the risk of fluctuating raw material prices, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, etc.