According to CICC's research report, the US CPI quarterly rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% yoy, all rebounded from last month and exceeded market expectations. Price increases come from a wide range of sources, driven by energy, core commodities, and rents. High oil prices have exacerbated energy inflation. Consumer resilience and AI investment demand support commodity prices, while rent stickiness has limited the decline in service inflation. In terms of monetary policy, the rebound in inflation has strengthened the need for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, but due to the recent rise in US bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar, financial conditions have been partially tightened, and the Federal Reserve may remain patient. CICC expects that interest rate hikes may still be suspended in October and will act again in December. However, the slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes does not mean that monetary policy is shifting towards easing; the Federal Reserve may still maintain a tight policy stance in the coming year.

According to CICC's research report, the US CPI quarterly rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% yoy, all rebounded from last month and exceeded market expectations. Price increases come from a wide range of sources, driven by energy, core commodities, and rents. High oil prices have exacerbated energy inflation. Consumer resilience and AI investment demand support commodity prices, while rent stickiness has limited the decline in service inflation. In terms of monetary policy, the rebound in inflation has strengthened the need for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, but due to the recent rise in US bond yields and the strengthening of the US dollar, financial conditions have been partially tightened, and the Federal Reserve may remain patient. CICC expects that interest rate hikes may still be suspended in October and will act again in December. However, the slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes does not mean that monetary policy is shifting towards easing; the Federal Reserve may still maintain a tight policy stance in the coming year.