Trump’s Russia Tariff Waiver Helps Apple, Eliminates Tariff Advantage for CF and CVR Partners

President Donald Trump’s decision to set aside a new Russia sanctions law has eased, at least for now, a tariff threat hanging over Apple and companies that make goods in China and India.

Diesel-heavy industries such as trucking, rail and farming also get slight relief as Russian fuel keeps flowing. U.S. consumers avoid potential price hikes on phones and other goods imported from those countries.

On the other side, U.S. refiners could face modest new competition. Domestic fertilizer producers, which have benefited from elevated prices, may miss out on protection the law’s steep tariffs could have given them.

The waiver is the latest example of Washington policy acting as a direct driver of corporate fortunes. A sanctions law, a diesel deal with Moscow and now a waiver have shifted the outlook for phone makers, refiners and fertilizer producers alike. 

Trump Signs Executive Order

Trump signed an executive order late Friday waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. 

The law, first introduced more than a year ago by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, directed the president to impose duties of up to 500% on Russian goods. 

It also called for duties of up to 100% on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas. That group includes China and India. 

With midterm elections weeks away, Trump is under pressure over high energy prices as the war with Iran disrupts oil supplies, according to Reuters. 

Backlash and Reaction

The move drew bipartisan criticism in Washington. 

Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.), whose late brother championed the bill, broke with the president. She said she would prefer to "keep the pressure on Russia" because she doesn’t trust Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Republican Sens. Thom Tillis and John Cornyn and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer also criticized the move. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Washington had chosen to "completely disregard" the law. 

Apple Gets Reprieve

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and other companies with large manufacturing footprints in China and India had faced significant exposure. The 100% tariff would have applied to all goods imported from a targeted country, not just energy, according to Reuters. 

The threat was never certain. The administration had not named target countries or set a rate before the deadline, and the law allowed any rate up to 100%. 

China made about 74% of the world’s iPhones in 2025, and India’s share is forecast to reach as much as 28% this year. India remained the largest buyer of Russian crude in September, according to Kpler ship-tracking analysis. 

Trump’s order came after Friday’s close, and Monday will be the first U.S. trading session since. Apple closed at $343.46 on Friday, the same day preorders for its foldable iPhone sold out.

Impact on Fertilizer Makers

Russia supplied about 35% of U.S. urea imports through July this year and roughly half of UAN nitrogen fertilizer imports, according to S&P Global. 

Market participants and industry groups expressed uncertainty in September about whether the Graham Act’s tariffs would cover fertilizer, with some expecting an agricultural exemption. But the statutory language applies to "all goods" from Russia, subject to limited exceptions.

If they applied, the tariffs would have raised farm costs and blocked the largest foreign competitor. This would have aided three domestic producers already benefiting from tight supplies since the Iran war began.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CF) said its second-quarter average selling price for nitrogen rose 39% to $523 a ton. CVR Partners LP (NYSE:UAN) reported second-quarter realized UAN prices up 24% and ammonia up 33%. LSB Industries Inc. (NYSE:LXU) saw UAN prices climb 41% and ammonia 78%, though plant maintenance pushed it to a quarterly loss.

CF closed Friday at $120.85, up 39% over 12 months. CVR Partners closed at $126.36, up about 40% over the past year. LSB closed at $10.63, up 25% for the 12-month period.

Diesel Deal Stays Intact 

Consumers of diesel should benefit from the decision. Without the waiver, the law would have required tariffs on Russian petroleum products such as diesel. 

That would have undercut the diesel agreement Trump struck with Moscow a week earlier. The Treasury Department has licensed Russian diesel imports through April 2027.

The first shipment of about 300,000 metric tons equals roughly 2% of a month’s U.S. diesel demand. That will followed by 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons immediately after that.

That adds only modest competition for refiners Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) and Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC). Goldman Sachs estimated that 800,000 extra tons of Russian diesel would cut wholesale prices by just $1 to $2 a barrel.

Relief Could Be Temporary

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump will take up to 60 days to weigh the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the global and U.S. economies. 

The waiver lasts until the administration decides further action is appropriate. That 60-day review would end around mid-December. 

The question is whether the waiver survives the review. 

If Trump reverses course in December, Apple and companies with supply chains in China or India would face the tariff threat again.