Assuming that the Strait of Hormuz begins to be reopened in November, the impact of the Iranian war on the global oil market by 2027 could increase US car owners' gasoline bills by 165 billion US dollars. The media estimates that every month the strait closes, the cost will increase by about 35 billion to 40 billion US dollars; if the strait is reopened in April next year, the total additional expenses will reach at least 350 billion US dollars. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will cause Brent futures prices to fall in recent months, and oil prices will take several weeks to fully reflect this decline. Normally, when crude oil prices rise, gasoline and diesel prices rise faster; when crude oil prices fall, gasoline and diesel prices fall more slowly, so it takes longer for consumers to fully benefit. But the initial drop in prices does not mean that oil prices will quickly return to pre-war levels. Crude oil supply and refining production may take months to return to normal, and ongoing geopolitical risks may keep oil prices high. The benchmark scenario for Bloomberg New Energy Finance assumes that the Straits will be reopened in November, then gasoline retail prices may not return to pre-war benchmark levels until around June 2027, while diesel prices will not return to pre-war benchmark levels until around August. If the strait reopens in April, oil prices will continue to be high until 2028. According to Kpler data, although the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, with the exception of Iran, oil trade flows in the Gulf region returned to nearly 80% of pre-conflict levels in September. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that during the strait closure period, oil exports from the Gulf region will remain at the current level and gradually return to 100% after the strait is reopened.

Assuming that the Strait of Hormuz begins to be reopened in November, the impact of the Iranian war on the global oil market by 2027 could increase US car owners' gasoline bills by 165 billion US dollars. The media estimates that every month the strait closes, the cost will increase by about 35 billion to 40 billion US dollars; if the strait is reopened in April next year, the total additional expenses will reach at least 350 billion US dollars. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will cause Brent futures prices to fall in recent months, and oil prices will take several weeks to fully reflect this decline. Normally, when crude oil prices rise, gasoline and diesel prices rise faster; when crude oil prices fall, gasoline and diesel prices fall more slowly, so it takes longer for consumers to fully benefit. But the initial drop in prices does not mean that oil prices will quickly return to pre-war levels. Crude oil supply and refining production may take months to return to normal, and ongoing geopolitical risks may keep oil prices high. The benchmark scenario for Bloomberg New Energy Finance assumes that the Straits will be reopened in November, then gasoline retail prices may not return to pre-war benchmark levels until around June 2027, while diesel prices will not return to pre-war benchmark levels until around August. If the strait reopens in April, oil prices will continue to be high until 2028. According to Kpler data, although the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, with the exception of Iran, oil trade flows in the Gulf region returned to nearly 80% of pre-conflict levels in September. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that during the strait closure period, oil exports from the Gulf region will remain at the current level and gradually return to 100% after the strait is reopened.