AAPL.US (AAPL.US): Pre-orders for the first folding-screen iPhone Duo are booming, and the delivery time is 14 weeks, setting a ten-year record

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley pointed out in the latest research report that Apple (AAPL.US)'s first folding screen phone, the iPhone Duo, showed strong early demand on the first day of reservation. The global average delivery time was about 14 weeks, setting the agency's longest record for tracking Apple models in the past 10 years. Meanwhile, delivery times for iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max declined year over year. Damo maintains Apple's “overweight” rating, with a target price of $355.

Record delivery time for iPhone Duo: strong demand and low supply coexist

As of October 16, the first day of iPhone Duo pre-orders, the average delivery time for Daimo Tracking's global market is about 14 weeks, and the estimated delivery time is scheduled to mid-January 2027. This time is the longest of the Apple models that have been tracked in the past 10 years.

Damo believes that on the one hand, the long delivery period reflects strong initial market demand for Apple's first folding screen phone, and on the other hand, it also shows that initial supply is limited. According to research data, the iPhone Duo will assemble about 7 million units in the second half of 2026, while the existing user base of the Apple iPhone is about 1.5 billion.

Notably, Damo said that up to now, there are no signs that the iPhone Duo has plans to increase production in the second half of 2026, and the recent assembly schedule has been slightly delayed from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2026.

iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max delivery time reduced year over year

In contrast to Duo, the delivery period for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max declined year over year in overseas markets, and also shortened slightly from month to month. Thirty-five days after pre-orders began (as of October 16), the average international delivery period for these two models was about 2 to 3 weeks. Overall, it was lower than the level of the iPhone 17 series in the same period last year, and about 2 days shorter than the previous month.

In terms of models, the delivery period of the iPhone 18 Pro is weak, and all countries other than the US that are tracking on Damo have declined year on year; the iPhone 18 Pro Max has remained flat or longer year on year in some countries. Japan is the only market where the delivery period for the iPhone 18 Pro Max was longer year over year (an increase of about 1.5 days), although it was slightly shorter month-on-month. China is the country with the biggest year-on-year reduction in the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max delivery period in the Damo tracking market.

Damo pointed out that the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max assembly volume increased 18% year on year in the second half of 2026, and delivery times were shortened year on year. The direction is consistent with recent market reports that orders for iPhone components have been cut. However, as of this week, Damo has not seen or heard reliable reports about TSMC's wafer order cuts, or Hon Hai's actual iPhone assembly volume cuts.

Overall, the Damo Research Report presents a two-sided picture of Apple's next-generation products: the folding screen Duo set a ten-year record due to strong demand and limited initial supply; the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max delivery period was shortened year-on-year, in line with rumors of component order cuts, but production cuts at the core foundry level have not been confirmed.

By the close of last Friday, Apple closed up 0.43% to $343.46. Since this year, the stock has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 27%.