Orient Securities: The bottom characteristics of liquor are gradually becoming apparent, medium- to long-term allocation value is gradually showing
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that the bottom characteristics of liquor are becoming increasingly clear, and it is recommended to select leaders with strong corporate governance capabilities and deterministic performance. The bank believes that the industry is still in the bottom-building stage of removing inventory first and stabilizing prices; next year, the Spring Festival will be early and the stocking window will be short, and the channel will not prepare large quantities of goods for a good start. It is expected that the decline in sales during the Spring Festival will narrow, but it is still under pressure. However, channel inventory was low, batch prices stabilized, and medium- to long-term allocation value gradually became apparent.
Orient Securities's main views are as follows:
The scale and popularity of this year's fall sugar has declined markedly compared to last year and spring sugar, and the reduction in health has become a structural highlight
This year's sugar and wine fair has an exhibition area of about 180,000 square meters and more than 3,500 exhibitors, which is a significant reduction compared to 2025 (200,000 square meters, about 4,000 companies) and this year's Chengdu Spring Sugar (325,000 square meters, over 6,600 stores). Famous wines such as Sugar Maotai, Yanghe, and Fenjiu were showcased last fall, but most of this year's famous wines did not participate in the hotel exhibition; the hotel exhibition aisle was sparsely crowded, and dealers mainly cleared inventory and reconciled accounts, and there were few on-site payments. The overall price range of exhibits declined, and bottled wine increased; the number of participants in the exhibition, herbal liquor, medicinal and food tonic wine, and low-alcohol wine increased dramatically, with alcohol-free beer and sparkling rice wine being showcased.
Demand on the industrial side is still bottoming out, but the channels are more adequate and the mentality is better than last year
The bank's industry research estimates that sales of Shuangjie Liquor are still declining year on year. Demand for government, commerce, and gifts is weak. The pressure on the sub-high-end price band is greatest. Below 100 yuan is relatively stable, and demand pressure has shifted from policy to consumption capacity. The winery side generally no longer pressurized goods from the channel; the assessment turned to open bottle sales and price stability. Repayments in the third quarter were generally under pressure; dealers quickly entered and left, and channels were concentrated on leading merchants; tobacco hotels did not stock up in advance and make up as needed. The bank expects that terminal inventory has fallen to a low level, the dealer chain is still being eliminated, wholesale prices for mainstream single products have not dropped sharply after the holiday, the consumer side is weak and stabilized, and the inflection point is still yet to be verified during the Spring Festival.
The price bands between leading and popular brands were relatively stable during the Double Festival period, and the differentiation between high-end and soy wine intensified
The bank expects Maotai's performance to be the most steady during the Double Festival period. Feitian's sales increased steadily, prices stabilized after the holiday season, and non-standard products were under pressure; Wuliangye traded price for volume, falling back to around 760 yuan but its share increased; Guojiao insisted on raising prices, and short-term sales contracted significantly; and Fenjiu and Jiannanchun were relatively stable in volume and price. Among real estate liquors, the bank expects Jinshiyuan to achieve a slight increase in bottle opening by relying on popular products such as Elegant; the performance of welcome car dinners is good; Furui's repayment is under pressure, channel inventory is high, and Yanghe mainly reduces volume and stabilizes prices. Prices of Qinghualang, Junpinxi Liquor, etc. are inverted, and small to medium soy wine have declined markedly.
Risk Alerts
The recovery in macroeconomics and consumer demand fell short of expectations; industry competition intensified and the price system declined beyond expectations; channel inventory removal fell short of expectations; research samples were limited, which did not necessarily reflect the full picture of the market.