AI and general demand resonate, Goldman Sachs drastically raised the server market forecast: 2027/28 TAM will increase by 31%/45%
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs drastically raised the global server market size (TAM) forecast in the latest research report, increasing TAM by 31% and 45% respectively for 2027/2028, and both general server and AI server forecasts. Goldman Sachs believes that the server market cycle continues, driven by the capital expenditure of very large cloud service providers (CSP), investment in AI infrastructure, and rising memory chip costs.
General-purpose servers: volume and price increase, 2027/28 value increase 17%/11%
Goldman Sachs raised the 2027/2028 value forecast for general-purpose servers by 17%/11%, respectively, and raised both shipment volume and average selling price (ASP). Shipments are expected to increase by 20%/12%/8% year-on-year in 2026-2028, respectively. The increase in value is mainly driven by rising memory chip costs and upgrading specifications to support AI workloads. It is estimated that by 2028, general-purpose server TAM will reach approximately US$271 billion (2025-2028 CAGR 22%), accounting for 17% of total server TAM.
AI server (rack-level NVL72): Shipments increased, TAM reached 1 trillion in 2028
In terms of rack-level AI servers, Goldman Sachs increased total shipments of NVL72 (driven by Nvidia and AMD chips) by 5%/1%, and is expected to reach 110,000/164,000 units in 2027/28. Among them, Nvidia racks are expected to reach 97,000/149,000 units, and AMD racks are expected to reach 13,000/15,000 units. Overall, the global TAM of AI server racks is expected to grow to 1 trillion US dollars at a CAGR of 163%, accounting for 63% of the total server TAM in 2028. As the main ODM supplier, Hon Hai/IFF is expected to continue to expand its share through specification upgrades.
AI server (8-GPU): Shipment increase, ASIC penetration rate is about 60% in 2028
Driven by rising demand for ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits), 8-GPU AI server shipments increased 10%/29% in 2027/28 to 2.7 million/3.3 million units. Goldman Sachs expects demand for AI chips from 2026-2028 to be 18 million/29 million/38 million units, respectively. In 2028, the global ASIC penetration rate will be about 60%, and the global first-tier manufacturers will be about 50%. TAM in this area is expected to have a CAGR of 38% in 2025-2028.
CSP capital expenditure and supply chain “buy” rating list
Goldman Sachs expects the capital expenditure of the leading US CSP to increase by 84%/52%/13% year-on-year in 2026 to 2028 (forecast increase of 4%/17%/22%), to reach approximately US$1.397 trillion by 2028; leading cloud platforms in China are expected to grow by 105%/21%/14%, respectively (forecast increase of 14%/15%/11%). Expenses are focused on chipsets (GPU/ASIC/CPU), memory chips (especially HBM), and components such as networking, cooling, and power.
In terms of the supply chain, Goldman Sachs has clearly given a list of “buy” ratings for the entire AI server industry chain, covering several key links:
The ODM process includes Honghai/Industrial Fulian, Weiying/Weichuang; the optical modules are Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng; PCB/CCL covers Shenghong Technology, Shengyi Technology, Taiguang Electronics and Taiyao Technology; FAU (Optical Fiber Array Unit) has superior interpretation and Daliguang; the silicon light sector consists of Lianya Optoelectronics and New Optoelectronics; liquid cooling is composed of Qilong Technology and its subsidiaries Fushida and Shuanghong Technology. In addition, the list also covers rail kit merchant Chuanhu Technology, leading wafer foundry TSMC, probe card manufacturer Wangsi Technology, test socket supplier Yingwei Technology, wafer-free manufacturer Xinhua Technology, and FT test equipment company Hongjin Precision.