US stock outlook | The three major stock index futures have mixed ups and downs, and the tech giants' earnings report hits this week, and the Nvidia GTC Berlin conference is about to open

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on October 19 (Monday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.19%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.48%, and NASDAQ futures were up 1.16%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 1.28%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.17%, the French CAC40 index fell 1.53%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 1.19%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.83% to $98.20 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.32% to $108.41 per barrel.

Market news

This week's market outlook: Meta and other companies' financial reports and the Nvidia GTC conference are a “big test” for AI transactions. The geopolitical situation continues to drive concerns about inflation. In the face of recent setbacks in AI transactions, the upcoming quarterly results of a number of key companies will test investors' confidence in this round of gains this week. Meta (META.US), Fanlin Group (LRCX.US), Texas Instruments (TXN.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), and SpaceX (SPCX.US) will be the focus of this week's earnings report. In addition to financial reports from companies such as Meta, the Nvidia (NVDA.US) GTC conference to be held in Berlin, Germany this week may also be an important “stress test” for current AI transactions. Meanwhile, the recent escalation of the conflict between the Middle East region and Russia and Ukraine is an important reason driving up international oil prices again and increasing concerns about inflation. If oil prices rise further and long-term US bond yields continue to rise, fluctuations in the technology sector are likely to increase further.

The Korean data center's IPO tomorrow will test the confidence of AI investors. Data center infrastructure company Elice Inc. will go public on Tuesday on the KOSDAQ (KOSDAQ) market, where Korean technology stocks gather. Previously, its counterpart Firmus cancelled this month's high-profile listing plan. This move will undoubtedly test the nerves of AI investors. According to the data, the Seoul-based cloud service provider plans to raise 2010 billion won (approximately US$151 million) through an IPO, which will be the exchange's largest IPO since this year. Elice set its issue price at 90,500 won per share — at the upper end of the previously announced pricing range — and the total market value after listing will exceed 1 trillion won.

After Philadelphia Semiconductor and NASDAQ plummeted, Morgan Stanley called “ready to increase positions.” Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson said investors should be prepared to increase the stock risk exposure of their portfolios as the major correction in technology stocks, which has continued for several months in some sectors of the stock market, comes to an end. Although the S&P 500 index is only about 2% from its all-time high, market valuations have declined significantly over the past few months, and the market breadth within the index has also seriously deteriorated. The strategist said that this market pattern, which is characterized by so-called quality factors outperforming and weighted indices such as the S&P 500 falling sharply, is coming to an end, thus providing a favorable window for investors to buy stocks on dips.

Co-Founder of Anthropic: AI may drive US GDP to reach $44 trillion by 2030. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark (Jack Clark) said on Saturday that one of the company's internal economic models predicts that the US economic output will reach 44 trillion US dollars by 2030. The core assumption of this prediction is that rapidly improving AI capabilities will transform various fields at a faster pace. Additionally, Anthropic said it plans to invest 5% of its shares in a newly established public interest fund to enable it to make donations to promote the “public good,” including mitigating the impact of AI on the job market.

US Secretary of Energy: Trump suspended sanctions against Russia but did not lift them. US Secretary of Energy Wright said that Trump has suspended sanctions related to Russia but has not lifted them. “The main sanctions against Russia are still in effect,” Wright said. He stressed that the US continues to impose “stricter restrictions than ever before” on Russian oil. He further stated: “Trump has made an exception to the sanctions, which is limited to diesel exports.”

Trump's approval rating fell to 33%, and the Republican Party was under pressure before the US midterm elections. According to a poll, Trump's approval rating has fallen to a new low, and as inflationary pressure intensifies and voter sentiment becomes increasingly dissatisfied, the Democratic Party's approval rating in the congressional control dispute is rising. Trump's approval rating is currently 33%, and the disapproval rating is 66%; of these, 52% of respondents said they strongly disagree with his performance. This approval rating is down 8 percentage points from the same period last year, and lower than at any time during his first term.

The streets are burning to the bond market, and France's financial difficulties are being pushed to the edge of a cliff. After a weekend of violent riots, French treasury bonds fell, highlighting the tense relationship between protesters who were angry about the cost of living and a government unable to maintain stability. French treasury bonds performed worse than other European countries. The interest rate spread between 10-year French treasury bonds and German treasury bonds widened by 8 basis points to 146 basis points, the highest in two weeks. Interest spreads with Italian treasury bonds set a new record, while the euro weakened and the CAC 40 stock index fell. Last weekend, there was a wave of attacks on public buildings, stores, and restaurants in many parts of France. However, the mountains of debt and the Eurozone's budget deficit, mean that the government cannot simply reassure the public by increasing spending.

Individual stock news

The Nvidia GTC Berlin conference is about to open, and Hwang In-hoon will deliver a keynote speech. From October 20 to 22, local time, the Nvidia GTC conference will be held in Berlin, Germany. Hwang In-hoon will deliver a keynote speech on the 21st. As Nvidia's most watched technology and ecology conference in the second half of the year, this year's GTC will further push the focus from “selling GPUs” to “selling AI factories”. According to official reports, the conference will have more than 100 special sessions covering the complete artificial intelligence technology stack, and will focus on accelerated computing, intelligent AI, physical AI, robotics, open source models, and AI infrastructure.

Does Nvidia want to produce customized NVHBM? Industry insiders say custom base nude films have become a trend. According to some sources, Nvidia has requested Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US) to use TSM.US (TSM.US) 3nm base die (baseDIE) to produce NVHBM (Nvidia's custom HBM technology, HBM means high-bandwidth memory) for them, while CoreDIE (CoreDIE) uses sixth-generation DRAM (dynamic random access memory) technology. Samsung Electronics has decided to accept Nvidia's technical requirements. Regarding the truth of this matter, on October 19, Samsung Electronics responded that the company would not comment on matters involving customers.

In response to Nvidia's standardization requirements, Samsung will cooperate with TSMC to produce HBM for the first time. According to reports, Samsung Electronics will use TSMC's 3 nm process to produce basic chips for Nvidia's next generation customized high-bandwidth memory; Nvidia has requested Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology to use TSMC's 3 nm process to manufacture NVHBM basic chips; the core chips will uniformly use the 1c process, that is, the sixth-generation DRAM process.

Musk: A SpaceX share will be given away to every child in the US next year. Musk posted on social media platforms: Next year, I will give away one of my SpaceX shares to every child in the US. This is just the first step in a series of future actions. According to the latest statistics from the US Census Bureau and population statistics, there are about 72 million to 73 million children in the US (referring to minors aged 0-17). Based on 72 million children, the current price of SpaceX is about 146.03 US dollars per share. Each child will receive 1 share, with a total value of about 10.5 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to about 70.2 billion yuan.

Citibank (C.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) collectively fortify AI agents. Citibank, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan Chase have successively restricted AI agents from accessing customer accounts and transacting on their behalf. The main reason was that AI tools would automatically transfer funds to high-interest products, threatening trillions of dollars of low-cost deposits. Currently, the transaction responsibility determination is still empty, and the Federal Reserve supervisory authorities have privately supported this. The banking industry is addressing profit challenges caused by AI through technical fortification and improving deposit stickiness.

24.6 billion mergers and acquisitions dream shattered! Albertsons (ACI.US) initiated the “Fall Settlement” to recover $9.3 billion in sky-high compensation from Kroger (KR.US). Nearly two years after the biggest supermarket chain merger case in US history came to an end, Albertson and Kroger are about to take this legal dispute to court. The point of contention is whether Kroger is responsible for the failure of this $24.6 billion deal. In December 2024, the US Federal Trade Commission stated that merging more than 4,000 stores would give them too much market power, and the federal court stopped the deal based on this. Abbotson asked Kroger to pay more than $9.3 billion, including $600 million in cancellation fees plus interest and fees, and more than $8 billion — a premium loss that shareholders could have earned from the deal, as well as taxes on related earnings.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: Canada's annual CPI rate was not seasonally adjusted in September.

The next day, Beijing time: Nvidia GTC Berlin.

Performance Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: GE Aerospace (GE.US), General Motors (GM.US)