The MSTR gold fork is imminent: the historical win rate is only 50%. Can MicroStrategy replicate the myth of skyrocketing growth?

According to Woofun AI, MicroStrategy (MSTR.US), the world's largest cryptocurrency listed holder, is nearing a key technical turning point. Its 50-day moving average is expected to cross the 200-day moving average to form a 'gold fork'. This bullish signal follows Bitcoin (BTC)'s similar performance a few weeks ago. For MSTR, which holds $69.81 billion in Bitcoin reserves, this pattern, if established, could trigger market attention as early as Monday.

Looking back on MSTR's stock price trajectory since it began large-scale BTC asset allocation in August 2020, the Golden Fork signal has been accompanied by astonishing capital appreciation. The stock price was $15.57 when it first started on September 15, 2020, and soared to $127.29 in February 2021, an increase of 717%.

Despite a dead fork in January 2022, the share price of $46.83 is still three times what it was in the first round. The stock price was $25.29 at the time of the second Golden Fork on March 2, 2023, then peaked at $473.83 in November 2024, with a cumulative increase of 1,774%. Even with a dead fork in October 2025, the share price of $328.40 still has a 1,199% premium over the starting point of Gold Fork.

However, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that there are significant differences in the reliability of technical signals. According to CoinDesk statistics, since 1999, MSTR has appeared 19 times, maintained gains only 11 times after 3 months, and continued to rise 10 times after 12 months. The long-term accuracy rate is only 50%, and the 12-month average return is as low as 3.3%. In an extreme case, post-Golden Fork stock prices in 2001 and 2007, respectively, plummeted 61%.

In contrast, BTC has performed more strongly recently. Since Gold Fork was confirmed on September 8, the price of BTC has risen nearly 5% to $82,000, continuing the rebound since July below the $60,000 low and surging above $87,000 earlier this month. The technical details of the chart show that in K-line charts since February 2025, the yellow line representing the 50-day EMA is approaching the green line representing the 200-day EMA, indicating that a gold fork is about to take shape.

On the basis of the bullish signal of breaking through the previous trend line, a potential gold fork further suggests that the stock price has room to rise. However, given the low win rate and high volatility of historical data, market participants need to be wary of the risk of technical signals failing, and Monday's trend will be a key point to verify this assumption.