Is Nvidia Stock Really Trading for Just 8 Times 2030 Earnings?

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the market's most valuable company by market cap. It's the only one entering this week with a market cap north of $5 trillion. Instinctively, you might think that the priciest name among U.S.-listed companies would also be one of the most expensive names on Wall Street.

Looking back, it's not entirely cheap. Nvidia trades for 27 times adjusted earnings on a trailing basis. It's not an outrageous price tag. It's also not bargain bin fodder. However, when you start to zoom out -- for a clear view of both the recent past and the next few years of projected growth -- the value in Nvidia stock starts to shine through.

A chip off the old block

There's no point in burying the lede. Nvidia is currently trading for a modest 8 times what analysts see it earning in fiscal 2030. The key word there is "currently" since a profit target is a movable feast. It may be academically correct to say that you can buy Nvidia today at a 2030 P/E multiple of 8, but the chances of that actually being the case once we get there are slim. It could be considerably higher. It could be considerably lower.

Projections will change, but let's lay out today's table. Here is what analysts see Nvidia generating in normalized earnings through the next few years, and the respective P/E ratio based on where the stock is now.

Fiscal Year	EPS	P/E
2027	$9.31	23
2028	$15.91	13
2029	$21.34	10
2030	$25.98	8
2031	$28.79	7

Data source: S&P Global. Nvidia's fiscal year 2027 will end on Jan. 31, 2027.

It's like a football kick in swirling winds. The longer you have to travel to get through the goalposts, the more variance there will be when the football gets there. So, yes, Nvidia is trading at 8 times what analysts expect it to earn on an adjusted basis in fiscal 2030. Don't bet on it landing there.

Aiming at a moving target

Nvidia has been a spectacular investment. As the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence infrastructure, it's been feasting on the boom lately. Just check out the accelerating revenue growth that Nvidia has posted in the last few quarters.

• Q2 FY 2026: 56%
• Q3 FY 2026: 63%
• Q4 FY 2026: 73%
• Q1 FY 2027: 85%
• Q2 FY 2027: 106%

Making a great trend even better, the bottom line is growing even faster. It won't always be that way. Nvidia's own guidance suggests revenue will decelerate slightly in the current quarter, which ends next week. Bulls can rightfully counter that Nvidia has a long track record of exceeding its conservative guidance, but a slowdown is as natural as it is inevitable.

The wonderful thing about momentum is that analysts' profit targets for future years have been rising with every blowout quarter. Wall Street pros weren't expecting Nvidia to earn $25.98 per share in fiscal 2030 a year ago, just as they weren't expecting a per-share profit of $9.31 this year.

Fiscally yours

I want to close on one final point. Fiscal 2030 may seem like it's four years away. It's not. In fact, in a little more than three months, Nvidia will dip its toe into fiscal 2028. Fiscal 2030 starts just two years, three months, and less than two weeks from now.

So Nvidia is already cheaper than you probably think. It's trading for just 13 times next year's earnings. Why do you think Nvidia's board recently authorized a record $150 billion in share repurchases? It's not the only one that thinks the stock is pretty cheap these days.

This can all change, of course. Tailwinds can become headwinds. Growth can slow sharply instead of modestly. Nvidia's chunky net margins can contract. Every investor should have a long-term mindset paired with short-term vigilance. It's paid off so far, with Nvidia stock being a nine-bagger over the past five years. Don't be surprised if this winner keeps winning.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.