Goldman Sachs said that despite an increase in natural gas production in Norway, unless there is an increase in the supply of liquefied natural gas in the Middle East, natural gas reserves in northwestern Europe may remain low in the winter. The bank's analysts pointed out in a report that Norway's gas exports to northwest Europe have recovered to a high in 2022. According to the bank, the increase in natural gas supply in Norway has raised the level of gas storage in northwestern Europe to 63% from 62% a week ago. Goldman Sachs said that Persian Gulf liquefied natural gas exports will gradually resume throughout the winter and will reach 65% of pre-war levels by January 2027, but the market is increasingly factoring in the price uncertainty of Middle Eastern supply. The TTF contract that expires on December 26 is currently reported at 88 euros/megawatt-hour, which means that the average probability of liquid gas flow in the Strait of Hormuz will be only 25% of the normal level this winter is 51%. Although this probability is higher than 47% last week, it is still far below Goldman Sachs's basic scenario forecast. The bank said it needs more evidence that liquefied natural gas flows in the Strait of Hormuz are recovering before determining that European gas prices will eliminate supply risk premiums in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs said that despite an increase in natural gas production in Norway, unless there is an increase in the supply of liquefied natural gas in the Middle East, natural gas reserves in northwestern Europe may remain low in the winter. The bank's analysts pointed out in a report that Norway's gas exports to northwest Europe have recovered to a high in 2022. According to the bank, the increase in natural gas supply in Norway has raised the level of gas storage in northwestern Europe to 63% from 62% a week ago. Goldman Sachs said that Persian Gulf liquefied natural gas exports will gradually resume throughout the winter and will reach 65% of pre-war levels by January 2027, but the market is increasingly factoring in the price uncertainty of Middle Eastern supply. The TTF contract that expires on December 26 is currently reported at 88 euros/megawatt-hour, which means that the average probability of liquid gas flow in the Strait of Hormuz will be only 25% of the normal level this winter is 51%. Although this probability is higher than 47% last week, it is still far below Goldman Sachs's basic scenario forecast. The bank said it needs more evidence that liquefied natural gas flows in the Strait of Hormuz are recovering before determining that European gas prices will eliminate supply risk premiums in the Middle East.