iPhone Duo pre-orders “sold out in minutes”, Goldman Sachs sees a “fruit chain” of folding machines will usher in new opportunities for growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that against the backdrop of overall pressure on the global smartphone market, the iPhone Duo, Apple (AAPL.US)'s first folding phone, detonated the market as soon as it came out. Goldman Sachs recently released an Apple Duo product research report, saying that pre-order performance was strong, confirming the bank's previous optimistic judgment on folding phones. The bank said that the release of new folding machines will contribute to the increase in orders for related companies, and is optimistic about targets such as Hon Hai, Lixun Precision, Daliguang, TSMC, and Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing in the Apple industry chain.

After starting the pre-order for a few minutes, the iPhone Duo delivery cycle was delayed until the official release date, and domestic e-commerce platforms even sold out one minute after launch. This consumer boom not only confirms the appeal of foldable products, but also marks that high-end folding racetracks have ushered in a new competitive pattern, while bringing new growth opportunities to Apple's supply chain.

From the demand side, iPhone Duo's popularity stems from the multiple resonances of product positioning, hardware innovation, and pricing strategies. The fuselage is 5.4 inches folded and 7.6 inches unfolded, making it the thinnest model in Apple's history; the hardware is equipped with a hinge with over 100 precision components, an under-screen front camera, and a new-generation VC heat sink, which relies on hinge angle recognition to seamlessly switch between software modes, and also supports Apple Pencil to expand productivity scenarios.

In terms of pricing, its starting price of 1999 US dollars is slightly lower than that of competitor Samsung's folding flagship in the same class, creating a cost performance advantage in the high-end market and leveraging the existing demand for high-end switches.

Industry data shows that consumption upgrades are reshaping the folding mobile phone circuit. The average sales price of folding phones around the world continued to rise. ASP rose from 1,228 US dollars to 1,392 US dollars in 12 rolling months, and high-end brands seized the main profits in the market. According to IDC data, in the third quarter of 2026, the overall mobile phone market fell 8% month-on-month, while iPhone shipments bucked the trend and rose 3% month-on-month, fully reflecting the anti-cyclical nature of leading brands.

Goldman Sachs predicts that the iPhone Duo will be shipped in 2026 and 2027, respectively, under the benchmark scenario; under the optimistic scenario, the shipment scale is expected to further increase to 35 million units and 66 million units, driving the rapid expansion of the global folding phone market.

Behind the explosion of new products, the entire Apple supply chain ushered in incremental dividends. Compared with traditional straight panel phones, the stand-alone value of components such as hinges, PCBs, thermal management, and precision structural parts has increased significantly. According to research data, the Apple business accounts for a large share of revenue for many supply chain companies in the Greater China region, such as hinges, optical lenses, PCBs, semiconductors, thermal management modules, and precision metal components.

The agency believes that the release of new folding machines will contribute to the increase in orders for related companies. The “buy” rating targets were Hon Hai, SZS, AVC, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Lixun Precision, VPEC, IFF, Dali Liguang, NYPCB, Elite Materials, Zhending Technology, Jingshuo, Delta Electronics, and TSMC.

Of course, under prosperity, it is still necessary to rationally view industry risks. Folding screens are still a high-end niche category, and cost and yield constraints make it difficult to quickly sink to the mid-tier market in the short term; the iPhone Duo's shipping limit is largely constrained by the upward trend in production capacity. Meanwhile, global demand for mobile phones is weak, and the sustainability of high-end consumption remains to be seen.

Overall, the popularity of the iPhone Duo proves that “new form+high-end” is an important growth logic in the existing mobile phone market. Apple's entry into the market will, on the one hand, force other manufacturers to speed up technological iteration; on the other hand, it will drive upstream industries such as hinges, flexible screens, and precision manufacturing to continue to iterate.

For the consumer electronics sector, folding screens have become one of the few definitive tracks. The focus of the future industry is the pace of production capacity release, the degree of perfection of the software ecosystem, and whether high-end demand can continue to be fulfilled.