Goldman Sachs: The decline in first-hand property prices in the Mainland narrowed slightly in September. Construction and completion performance fell short of expectations

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that the average price decline in the mainland first-tier market narrowed slightly in September, and first-tier cities continued to show a positive structural trend; the second-hand market also showed positive structural signs. The average second-hand price decline in September was similar to August, but the increase in first-tier cities increased and the decline in lower-tier cities narrowed.

Average first-hand and second-hand property prices in 70 cities recorded month-on-month increases to 17 and 9 in September, up from 15 and 3 in August. Goldman Sachs pointed out that while the trend in property prices is encouraging, the country's first-hand sales volume and sales volume in September still fell 21% and 20% year over year, respectively, below expectations. Meanwhile, construction activity remains weak, particularly poor completion performance, reflecting continued sluggishness in fixed asset investment and the land market.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that developers' land investment efforts have clearly diverged since the 828 policy. Large central enterprises with stable balance sheets such as China and Overseas (00688), China Resources Land (01109), and China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ) have maintained active land reserves, while China's Jinmao (00817) and Greentown China (03900) have become more cautious.

Looking ahead to October, the bank expects the month-on-month decline in average first-hand and second-hand sales prices to be similar to September, and the recovery momentum in first-tier cities will continue; the year-on-year decline in new home sales and sales may remain high in double digits. It is concerned whether first-tier cities will show signs of stabilizing or bottoming out in the future.