Goldman Sachs: GMV for online retail products across the country remained roughly flat year over year in September, Alibaba-W (09988) cloud business revenue growth accelerated

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that GMV growth for online retail products across the country slowed to roughly flat in September, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, down from the 2.2% year-on-year increase in August; online service sales increased 8.3% year on year, higher than the 4.9% year-on-year increase in August. Overall retail sales increased 1.1% year over year, higher than the bank's forecast of 0.3% and market expectations of 0.5%. The improvement was mainly driven by offline product and restaurant sales.

According to the report, taking into account the latest data for September, the increase in online GMV and package volume in the third quarter was about 2% and 3% year-on-year respectively, lower than Goldman Sachs's original forecast of 3% and 4%. Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered the 2026 online GMV and package volume growth forecast from 4% and 5% year on year to 3% and 4% year on year, and is expected to increase by 2% and 4% year on year in the fourth quarter, respectively (up 5% and 6%, respectively).

Goldman Sachs indicated that the year-on-year improvement in the instant retail and takeout business will drive the quarterly performance of Alibaba-W (09988) and JD Group-SW (09618) as of the end of September. Currently, it is predicted that Alibaba's cloud business revenue growth will accelerate and e-commerce profits will stabilize. Excluding instant retail, e-commerce business profits are expected to increase 1% year over year. CMR is expected to drop 5%. There is room for an increase in the earnings forecast per share to maintain the “buy” rating and target price of HK$172. The bank also maintained JD's “buy” rating and target price of HK$169. Goldman Sachs rated Meituan-W (03690) as a “buy” with a target price of HK$123. It is predicted that takeout EBIT for the third quarter will record about 600 million yuan.