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    Costco Wholesale (COST) Trades 15% Above Fair Value As September Sales Jump 13%

    Simply Wall St·10/20/2026 13:47:48
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    Costco Wholesale (COST) just reaffirmed its quarterly cash dividend at US$1.47 per share, payable on 13 November 2026, following a September sales update that showed net sales of US$30.02b, up 13% year over year.

    Recent trading reflects that story. Costco Wholesale’s share price return is up 11.19% over the past 30 days and 16.50% year to date. The 3-year total shareholder return of 87.56% and 5-year total shareholder return of 114.34% point to momentum that has been building rather than fading.

    See how Costco Wholesale compares with other retailers that have strong balance sheets and consistent cash generation by reviewing our hand picked 32 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

    After a near US$1,000 Costco Wholesale share price and a fresh 13% uplift in September sales, the story looks strong on paper. Does the balance of risk and potential reward still lean toward buyers at this level?

    Most Popular Narrative: 15.5% Overvalued

    Costco Wholesale closed at $995.53, while the most followed narrative fair value sits at $861.94, which frames the current share price as rich versus that reference point and puts more weight on what management is saying than on near term momentum.

    Core-on-core margin, meanwhile, moved from a drag to a genuine strength. In the third quarter, core-on-core margins were described as down nine basis points, a deliberate trade Costco made to defend value against higher gas and egg prices. In the fourth quarter, core-on-core margins are up 18 basis points, broad-based across fresh, non-foods, and food and sundries, and management now attributes the gain not to a lapping effect, but to supply chain efficiencies and stronger labor productivity in meat, bakery, and deli. The prior quarter’s investment logic and the current quarter’s efficiency logic are two different explanations for two different outcomes. Both were presented as good news. That is worth sitting with for a moment.

    See why 3 investors see Costco Wholesale as 15% overvalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $861.94 (OVERVALUED)

    Still, Costco Wholesale’s story carries pressure points, including slowing paid member growth and a discontinued Costco Next marketplace, which shifts attention back to execution elsewhere.

    Find out about the key risks to this Costco Wholesale narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the Costco Wholesale story so far feels finely balanced between optimism and caution, consider acting promptly. Review the data yourself and weigh both sides using the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more Costco Wholesale investment ideas?

    If Costco Wholesale already sits in your portfolio, broadening your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas can support your decision-making and highlight additional opportunities to research.