Peoples Bancorp Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Peoples Bancorp (NASDAQ:PEBO) reported third-quarter financial results on Tuesday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.
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Summary
Peoples Bancorp Inc. reported Q3 2026 diluted EPS of $1.04, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.93. Adjusted EPS was $0.91 after accounting for a $4.5 million loss on investment securities and $1.5 million in acquisition-related expenses.
Strategic initiatives include the imminent closing of the Citizens merger and the pending acquisition of Capital Bancorp expected in 2027, enhancing capabilities and market presence.
Key financial metrics showed improvement, with net interest income increasing by 1%, net interest margin expanding by 8 basis points, fee-based income growing 5%, and nonperforming loans declining by 11%.
The company maintains a positive outlook, expecting positive operating leverage in 2026 and 2027, with loan growth projected between 6% and 8% for 2026 and 3% to 5% for 2027.
Management highlights include a focus on strategic mergers, managing asset size under $10 billion, and an expectation of increased criticized and classified loans following the Citizens merger.
Full Transcript
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
Good morning and welcome to Peoples Bancorp Inc. conference call. My name is Gary and I will be your conference facilitator. Today’s call will cover a discussion of the results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. Please be advised that all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question and answer period. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then one on your telephone keypad and questions will be taken in the order they are received.
If you would like to withdraw your question, press star then two. This call is also being recorded. If you object to the recording, please disconnect at this time. Please be advised that the commentary in this call will contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding Peoples’ future financial performance or future events. These statements are based on management’s current expectations. The statements in this call, which are not historical fact, are forward-looking statements and involve a number of risks and uncertainties detailed in Peoples’ Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Management believes the forward-looking statements made during this call are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of their knowledge of Peoples’ business and operations.
However, it is possible actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Peoples disclaims any responsibility to update these forward-looking statements after this call except as may be required by applicable legal requirements. Peoples’ third quarter 2026 earnings release and earnings conference call presentation were issued this morning and are available at peoplesbancorp.com under Investor Relations. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) financial measures discussed during this call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included at the end of the earnings release. This call will include about 15 to 20 minutes of prepared commentary followed by a question and answer period which I will facilitate.
An archived webcast of this call will be available on peoplesbancorp.com in the Investor Relations section for one year. Participants in today’s call will be Tyler Wilcox, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Katie Bailey, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, and each will be available for questions following opening statements. Mr. Wilcox, you may begin your conference.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Activity levels at Peoples are high as we focus on a number of strategic priorities. We are working to close the Citizens merger at the end of this month. We also recently announced the pending acquisition of Capital Bancorp, which we expect to close in 2027. We are excited about these strategic initiatives and the opportunity to enhance our capabilities, products, services, and company performance as a result of these investments.
Focusing on the present, we continue to be pleased with our consistent and high-performing core results as reflected in our third quarter 2026 earnings which we released earlier this morning. For the third quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.91 when adjusted for one-time items. Our diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.04, which exceeded consensus analyst estimates of $0.93. Our one-time items for the quarter included a $4.5 million loss on investment securities which reduced diluted EPS by $0.10.
This was part of our planned effort to remain below $10 billion in assets with the pending Citizens merger, and acquisition-related expenses of $1.5 million which reduced our diluted EPS by $0.03. Some of our highlights for the third quarter include improvements in our net interest income which was up 1%, expansion in our net interest margin of 8 basis points, growth in our fee-based income of 5%, provision for credit losses declined 24%, improvement in our efficiency ratio adjusted for one-time items, higher return on average assets which was 1.36%, increased return on average stockholders’ equity of 10.44%, declines of 11% in our nonperforming loans, growth in our lower-cost interest-bearing demand deposit and money market accounts of nearly $100 million combined, and improved regulatory capital ratios.
Our provision for credit losses declined to $3.6 million, a 24% reduction compared to the second quarter. Our allowance for credit losses to total loans was 1.11%, a 3 basis point decrease compared to June 30. The reduction in our provision for credit losses for the quarter was due to declines in reserves for individually analyzed loans coupled with updates to our prepayment, curtailment, and funding rates, partially offset by higher net charge-offs.
Our annualized quarterly net charge-off rate grew to 35 basis points compared to 31 basis points for the linked quarter. For the third quarter, we had higher commercial and industrial loan charge-offs along with increases in commercial real estate and consumer indirect loan charge-offs. At the same time, we had a reduction of 25% in our lease charge-offs. As anticipated, our small-ticket lease charge-offs have declined throughout 2026. We remain committed to our small-ticket leasing business and see a return to growth coming throughout the year in 2027 with a focus on appropriate risk-adjusted returns and minimized volatility.
For the third quarter, our nonperforming loans declined $4 million, or 11%, compared to the linked quarter-end, which was driven by lower nonaccrual loans. Criticized loans decreased $18 million while classified loans grew $30 million. For the third quarter, we had downgrades of two commercial real estate relationships and one commercial and industrial relationship which drove the increase. We do not anticipate significant losses as we are in the process of exiting these credits.
We expect an increase in our criticized and classified loan balances during the fourth quarter as we onboard the loan portfolio from the Citizens merger. Our delinquency levels continue to improve with 99.2% of our loan portfolio considered current at September 30th compared to 99.1% at the linked quarter-end. Moving on to loan balances, we had increases of $19 million, or 1% annualized, compared to June 30. We mentioned on our last quarterly earnings call that we had expected payoffs later in the year that would be a headwind for loan growth, and we realized some of that this quarter with commercial payoffs of over $160 million. We have also been selective with our lending activity as we are strategically managing under the $10 billion mark through year-end.
Most of our increases in balances was in construction loans which were up $40 million, while commercial and industrial loans and home equity lines of credit grew $34 million and $10 million, respectively. We had reductions of $38 million in our commercial real estate loans which were due to the aforementioned payoffs, while residential real estate loans declined $14 million and leases were down $12 million. For the fourth quarter, the Citizens merger is expected to add nearly $350 million of loans before purchase accounting adjustments.
I will now turn the call over to Katie for a discussion of our financial performance.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Thanks, Tyler. Our net interest income grew 1%, or $1.1 million, while our net interest margin improved 8 basis points. Increased investment and loan yields contributed to the higher margin, while net interest income benefited from higher loan income. Accretion income totaled $1 million compared to $1.1 million for the linked quarter, contributing 4 basis points and 5 basis points to net interest margin, respectively. For the first nine months of 2026, net interest income improved 5%, or $12.8 million.
Net interest margin expanded 8 basis points over the same period and was mostly attributable to our lower deposit costs. Our interest expense on deposits declined nearly $19 million compared to the first nine months of 2025. Accretion income totaled $3.4 million compared to $7.8 million for 2025, contributing 5 basis points and 12 basis points to net interest margin, respectively. As it relates to our interest rate exposure, we are relatively neutral to slightly asset sensitive.
We have been in this position for several quarters, and the two pending mergers will not have a meaningful impact on our overall interest rate risk position. Moving on to our fee-based income, we had growth of 5% compared to the linked quarter driven by higher lease income as well as increases in deposit account service charges, trust and investment income, and bank-owned life insurance income. For the first nine months of 2026, fee-based income grew 8%. The improvement was mostly due to increased lease income, trust and investment income, and deposit account service charges.
Our noninterest expenses were up 2% compared to the linked quarter. This included $1.5 million of acquisition-related expenses which were largely professional fees. Excluding these expenses, noninterest expenses were flat compared to the second quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, noninterest expenses were up 4%. This included $1.9 million of acquisition-related expenses which was the primary driver of our higher professional fees. Salaries and employee benefits also contributed to the growth, along with operating lease expense which corresponds to our fee-based lease income.
Our reported efficiency ratio was 58.5% for the third quarter, an increase compared to 58.3% for the linked quarter. Excluding acquisition-related expenses, our adjusted efficiency ratio was 57.3% for the third quarter compared to 57.9% for the second quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, our reported efficiency ratio was 58.5% compared to 59% for the prior year and was driven by higher revenue. Excluding acquisition-related expenses, our adjusted efficiency ratio was 57.9% for 2026 compared to 59% for 2025.
Looking at our balance sheet, our investment portfolio as a percent of total assets declined to 18.3% at quarter-end compared to 19.1% at June 30. We completed another sale of securities as part of our investment portfolio restructuring related to the Citizens merger, which resulted in a $4.5 million loss for the quarter on the sale of approximately $59 million of securities. In addition to providing flexibility to remain under $10 billion, this will also improve the yield on our investment portfolio.
Our loan-to-deposit ratio grew at quarter-end to 91.9% compared to 91.5% at the linked quarter-end, mostly due to lower deposits and some loan growth. For the third quarter, our core deposit balances, which excludes brokered CDs, were up $19 million compared to June 30th. We had significant increases in our interest-bearing demand and money market accounts which were up $52 million and $46 million, respectively. These increases were partially offset by reductions of $44 million in retail CDs and $34 million in noninterest-bearing accounts.
Our demand deposits as a percent of total deposits was flat at 36% for both September 30th and June 30th. Our noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits ratio was unchanged at 21% at quarter-end and at June 30th. The Citizens merger is projected to add approximately $550 million of deposits for the fourth quarter of 2026. As far as our capital levels, all of our regulatory capital ratios improved compared to the linked quarter-end as earnings outpace dividends. Our tangible equity to tangible asset ratio declined this quarter and was negatively impacted by increased unrealized losses on our available-for-sale investment portfolio. I will now turn the call back over to Tyler for his closing comments.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thank you, Katie. We are focusing on successfully closing the Citizens merger this month while also prioritizing our work on the pending Capital merger. These mergers will set the stage for our future strategic growth, including expanded market areas within our footprint, improved financial metrics such as higher net interest margin and lower efficiency ratio, and the ability for our associates to have more meaningful conversations with existing and new clients about the diversified products and services we provide.
For the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, we have the following performance expectations, excluding the impact of noncore expenses but including our Citizens merger. We expect to achieve positive operating leverage for 2026 compared to 2025. We anticipate our net interest margin will be between 4.2% and 4.3% for the full year of 2026. We believe our quarterly fee-based income will range between $28 million and $30 million. We expect quarterly total noninterest expense to be between $78 million and $80 million.
We believe loan growth will be between 6% and 8% for 2026 compared to 2025, which includes the acquired loans from Citizens. We continue to anticipate a reduction in our net charge-offs for 2026 compared to 2025, which we expect to continue to positively impact provision for credit losses. Excluding any changes in the economic forecasts, we expect between $11 million and $13 million of acquisition-related expenses during the fourth quarter for the Citizens merger.
We would also like to provide some high-level expectations for 2027, excluding the impact of noncore expenses and the planned Capital merger. We expect to achieve positive operating leverage for 2027 compared to 2026. For the full year of 2027, we anticipate our net interest margin will be between 4.3% and 4.5%. This assumes a 25 basis point increase in rates from the Federal Reserve in late 2026, one in March 2027, and another in September of 2027.
We believe our quarterly fee-based income will range between $31 million and $33 million. Our first-quarter fee-based income is typically elevated as it includes annual performance-based insurance commissions. We expect quarterly total noninterest expense to be between $80 million and $82 million for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2027, with the first quarter of 2027 being higher due to the annual expenses we typically recognize during the first quarter of each year.
We believe our loan growth will be between 3% and 5% compared to 2026, which is dependent on the timing of paydowns on our portfolio. We anticipate similar charge-offs and net charge-off rate for 2027 compared to 2026, which includes projected increases related to the addition of the Citizens portfolio. We look to have a strong close to our 2026 performance and continue to be optimistic about our strategic plans and ability to execute on the pending mergers and future growth.
Laying out a path beyond the $10 billion threshold is the culmination of years of strategic planning and patience. The investments we have made in people, technology and infrastructure are in place today and operating as if we have already crossed that milestone. We have proven our ability to provide reliable results for our shareholders and improve performance both organically and through acquisitions. We will continue to place importance on the value we provide as an investment to our shareholders and the return that we produce. We will focus on being a top-notch employer and sharing our culture with our new associates from our mergers. We will make meaningful investments in the communities we serve and provide high-quality, trusted solutions for all of our clients. This concludes our commentary and we will open the call for questions. Once again, this is Tyler Wilcox and joining me for the Q&A session is Katie Bailey, our Chief Financial Officer.
I will now turn the call back into the hands of our facilitator.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today is from Ryan Payne with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.
Ryan Payne (Analyst at D.A. Davidson)
Good morning, this is Ryan Payne on for Jeff Rulis today. Heard you on the expected Citizens close later this month. Any update on close timing for Capital next year?
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yeah, our expectation is sometime very end of first quarter, beginning of second quarter.
Ryan Payne (Analyst at D.A. Davidson)
Got it. And on the security sale, maybe some more detail on that. What was the timing of that during the quarter, the yield on those securities, and as well as the expected impact on NIM going forward?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah, so it happened in August and the yield on the amount we sold was about one and a half. And the impact to margin on a go-forward, I think, was the third part of your question. I think we expect a slight increase of a few basis points.
Ryan Payne (Analyst at D.A. Davidson)
Okay, last from me, Durbin impact. We last heard an $11 million annual hit to those fees beginning July 2028. Just wanted to confirm that or if anything has changed there.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
No, that’s still the number. And again, as a reminder that we noted in the Capital announcement that they have minimal impact to our Durbin and to interchange income. So the number has not really changed.
Ryan Payne (Analyst at D.A. Davidson)
Understood. Thanks, guys.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thank you. Thank you, Ryan.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
The next question is from Tim Delacey with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Tim Delacey (Analyst at Raymond James)
Hey, good morning, Tyler. Good morning, Katie. Just filling in for Danny this morning.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Good morning.
Tim Delacey (Analyst at Raymond James)
Hey, Tyler, maybe starting off on loan growth, you know, growth is obviously relatively modest this quarter. You kind of laid out some of the factors that played in there and kind of laid out the 3% to 5% target for next year. You know, just curious how the commercial pipelines are looking today, you know, where you’re seeing the drivers of growth coming from in the near term, and you know, whether you’re expecting some of those payoff headwinds to start easing as we move into ’27 here.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thanks for the question. My hope is, yes, we will see some of that easing. Let me lay out a few thoughts for you. As to demand, this was actually our third highest quarter ever of commercial production. And I really like the mix shift into C&I that we’ve seen throughout the year. And so demand remains really positive. For reference, we expected this year about $480 million in payoffs, and through three quarters we’ve seen about $460 million in payoffs. The vast majority of that, about 40%, is via sales primarily of multifamily projects, which says that there’s a high demand for the high-quality stuff that our folks are producing. And for the remainder of the year, there’s probably about $150 million to $180 million of expected forecasted payoffs. And whether that materializes in the fourth quarter or pushes into the first quarter is, you know, one of the main questions weighing on that loan growth for the forward guidance.
So did I miss anything in your question there?
Tim Delacey (Analyst at Raymond James)
No, no, no. That was very helpful color. I appreciate that. And, you know, maybe Katie, just, you know, flipping over to the margin, you know, appreciate the guidance for 2027, you know, with the rate increases that you guys are assuming for next year. Just curious about how you’re thinking about, you know, what we should expect for betas on the deposit side that should be factored into the 2027 guide.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah, non-maturity betas inclusive of noninterest-bearing is about 30%.
Tim Delacey (Analyst at Raymond James)
Okay, appreciate that. And then maybe just finishing up, you know, just Tyler, maybe one on credit, you know, outside of the few relationships you highlight in the presentations, you know, are you seeing any meaningful changes in credit trends across the broader commercial portfolio or, you know, any particular areas you’re keeping your eye on more closely with the recent move in rates?
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
No, not so far. Thankfully, you know, commercial credit remains very strong. Last quarter we were talking about the, you know, slight increase in criticized — that’s come down. Now we see the slight increase in classified as we guided. We expect those to pay off and exit the bank with minimal losses. So the core commercial credit remains incredibly strong. The significant reduction in the small-ticket leasing is also extremely positive. I would say the one area where we’ve seen a slight increase in delinquency on the indirect portfolio, as I think there’s some pressure on consumers in that area, which is also weighing on the production with interest rates and fuel prices increasing. So that is an area where we’re watching, but we continue to generate that production at near 750 credit scores consistent with our past practices.
So very cautiously optimistic on credit overall and particularly in the commercial space.
Tim Delacey (Analyst at Raymond James)
Okay, well, that’s terrific color, guys. I’ll step back.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thank you.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
The next question is from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Adam Kroll (Analyst at Piper Sandler)
Hi, good morning. This is Adam Kroll on for Nate. Good morning, Tyler and Katie, and thanks for taking your questions. Maybe for Tyler to start, I know the loan growth guide excludes Capital, but they’ve historically been a pretty high-growth franchise. So I guess I’d be curious, you know, is there any transition period after the deal closes where maybe growth is a little softer or just any color there?
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Thanks. I would say as to Capital, one of the most exciting things to me is the level of mutual engagement that we have with the Capital team and the Capital leadership particularly. And a big part of that is obviously the continuity for their bankers, their clients, and their entire organization of our intent to, you know, continue the things that they’re doing that made them an attractive purchase in the first place. So I don’t anticipate any kind of trough because the, you know, the lead-in of the next, you know, four, five, six months of engagement together that includes our bankers, our credit staff, their leadership, their bankers and their clients is, you know, mutually committed to continuing what it is they do. So we do expect that their historically higher growth rates than ours are something that we can perpetuate and is part of what makes the deal appealing.
Adam Kroll (Analyst at Piper Sandler)
Got it. I appreciate the color there. And Howard, I think you on the last call you mentioned small-ticket leasing could potentially begin to grow again in ’27. Is that still the case? And is any of that contemplated in the NIM guide that you gave?
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
It is. It’s baked in as part of our forecast and we do believe it will grow. Now, it’s not going to grow at double digits and the growth, I think, will be more heavily weighted to the second half of the year, you know, growing off of the now $100 million portfolio. But we have the right sales team, we have the right leadership, and we have the right credit box now that we’ve tested out to ensure that we grow in a positive way that we think can really impact and let it start punching above its weight again, which is the reason why we are excited about the future of that business.
Adam Kroll (Analyst at Piper Sandler)
Got it. Maybe one last one from me, Katie. I’d be curious to hear how we should think about provisioning in 2027, just given the likely step up in the reserve with the Capital deal and just maybe longer term where you see the reserve kind of settling out.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah, I mean, I think to your point, I think the last couple quarters have been pretty nice from a provision perspective. I expect we get elevated from here. I think the coverage ratio, which is how I call it — the allowance to total loans — right now we’re at 1.11%. I think we stay in that range, go up to maybe 1.2% over time with Capital coming on board. So that’s where I would see us progress against. Citizens won’t have any material impact to that ratio, but Capital, when it comes on board, will help stabilize that.
Adam Kroll (Analyst at Piper Sandler)
Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
No problem.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
Thank you. The next question is from Brendan Nosel with Hovde Group. Please go ahead.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Hey, good morning, folks. Thanks for taking the questions.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Hey, no problem, Brendan.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Maybe starting off here, just kind of on prepping the balance sheet for year end. Are there any other security sales that need to take place to stay under $10 billion? And I think you initially were contemplating like $300 million.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Well, as we articulated with the Citizens acquisition closing here later this month, we will sell a majority of their portfolio at close or very near to close. As it relates to any more of our portfolio that we will sell, that will just be dependent on how we transition through the remainder of the year. Where we are from an asset size, we might take another $2 to $3 million loss in the fourth quarter, but we’ll just continue to evaluate the market and evaluate our asset size as we proceed through the remainder of the fourth quarter.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Yep. Okay, that’s perfect. Then maybe turning to the margin, can you just narrow down kind of the NIM that you’re expecting to see next quarter? There’s a lot of moving pieces with movement in both your and Citizens’ securities books and then their impact on both the core margin and fair value mark/accretion.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah. So I think in the next quarter we could see—I’m going to project—somewhere in an 8 to 10 basis point lift with the addition of Citizens, again given the securities restructure we just talked about, their portfolio, and then just the deposit franchise that makes that organization very attractive.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Okay, all right, awesome. Thanks, Katie. Moving on a kind of related note, just thinking about your rate positioning. If I think back to last quarter, I think you folks said that each 25 basis point hike was 6 to 8 basis points of margin improvement. That reads to me as being fairly asset sensitive. But it kind of sounds like now you’re more neutral to only slightly asset sensitive. So I’m wondering what’s changed over the past couple of months.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah, I think that number, I mean, it ebbs and flows with each rate increase. It varies a little bit, but I think that 25 basis points now we would quantify to be about 5 basis points of benefit to us. And so I think it’s—I mean, we could debate whether that’s significantly asset sensitive or slightly—but that’s where the new number is.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That’s fair and also helpful. Okay, thanks for taking my questions.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
Thank you. The next question is from Matthew Breese with Stephens. Please go ahead.
Matthew Breese (Analyst at Stephens)
Hey, good morning.
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Morning, Matt.
Matthew Breese (Analyst at Stephens)
You know, just thinking about your loan growth guide for next year. Could you give us some idea on what it contemplates for commercial real estate and leasing growth, and if it does include positive growth in those segments, what type of growth are you anticipating?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah, I think overall commercial growth is about 5% or so as one of the main drivers. The leasing overall growth is probably about 6% to 7%. The kind of drag on the loan growth is going to be coming from our expectations on the consumer book in a rising-rate environment. We’re not seeing the refi business, and the residential indirect has slowed down a bit. And so that’s kind of the outlook on those pieces. I will say the growth as well in commercial is probably a little bit more weighted to the C&I as opposed to the CRE, but still good CRE growth.
Matthew Breese (Analyst at Stephens)
Okay, so you do anticipate positive commercial real estate growth next year.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
It is a bit of running on a treadmill, as I noted, because of the heavy weighting to the sales and the payoffs in that space particularly.
Matthew Breese (Analyst at Stephens)
Yep. And then, Katie, just thinking about the ’27 NIM guide, but including Capital, if I go back to the deal deck, I think it suggested a 5% NIM or higher. Could you talk about that in the context of the updated ’27 NIM guide on the standalone and whether or not that 5% still holds, and what would put you at the upper versus the lower end?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Well, I think—with Capital not closing until probably, let’s say, early in the second quarter or end of the first quarter—we won’t have the benefit of that in the first quarter. So the full-year guide with Capital in next year, I don’t think we would get to the 5%. Once they are in our numbers on a quarterly basis, I think we will approach 5, be at 5, or slightly around the 5% rate that we previously quoted. So for the full year, I don’t think we will get to 5 in 2027.
Matthew Breese (Analyst at Stephens)
Right. But you’ll be in and around 5% with them and beyond. Fair? Okay. I hate to pile on the $10 billion question, but you do have some excess cash at the end of the quarter as well. I’m curious how you see the cash and securities components playing out as you pull the levers and stay under $10 billion by year end?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yes. I think you will see our cash position decrease over time. I think some of that is just on-balance-sheet liquidity as we approach the end of the quarter, given the securities portfolio was smaller. So I think you’ll see it diminish, especially as we kind of manage through year end.
Matthew Breese (Analyst at Stephens)
Okay, that’s all I had. I’ll leave it there.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Thank you.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
Thank you. The next question is from Emily Lee with KBW. Please go ahead.
Emily Lee (Analyst at KBW)
Hey everyone, this is Emily stepping in for Tim Switzer. Thanks for taking my question.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Sure. Morning.
Emily Lee (Analyst at KBW)
So, just to go back to the NIM, I was just wondering what was the exit margin in Q3 and how are deposit rates looking at the end of the quarter too?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
The exit margin on the quarter was a little higher than where we reported for the full quarter. And accretion was a similar impact for the month of September as it was for the quarter. So I think we had a slight benefit, call it 5 to 8 basis points, as we exited from where we reported for the full quarter. As it relates to deposits, I think we’re starting to see some more competition in the market for deposits, and I think we’ll continue to see that as this rate outlook plays out and as we start to see rates potentially move upward. And so we’ve been slowly following that trend and we’ll continue to actively manage it as we have been in the past. And that will continue to likely come through our retail CD pricing product.
Emily Lee (Analyst at KBW)
Understood, very helpful. And then what does guidance imply for expenses with Capital once all the cost saves are achieved? So basically the run rate for 4Q27.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
So the full cost saves for Capital will not be realized in 2027. They won’t be fully realized until 2028.
Emily Lee (Analyst at KBW)
Okay. Okay, thank you.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Thank you.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
Thank you again. If you have a question, please press star then one. The next question is a follow-up from Brendan Nosel with Hovde Group. Please go ahead.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Hey folks, one more for me on expenses. I was trying to bridge the gap from this quarter’s $73 million in core expenses to the first quarter number at the higher end of your $80 to $82 million range. And I’m asking because it looks like Citizens is running like $4.5 million on costs. So $73 and $4.5 gets you to like $77.5. So where does that other several million dollars come from in the updated expense outlook for both 4Q26 and then 1Q27?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
A couple things. I think Q3 was a little lighter than we anticipated. I think some of that was just timing that we’ll see move into the fourth quarter, and again, therefore starting at the $73 I think you’re starting off a little light—$1 million, call it, for a round number. I think then you have the annual increase in predominantly our largest expense item as it relates to salaries and benefits, and I think we are seeing a meaningful increase in benefit cost expectations for ’27 over ’26.
I’d say those are the big factors that are probably influencing that number higher than where you just quoted, Brendan.
Brendan Nosel (Analyst at Hovde Group)
Yep. Yep. Okay, that’s helpful. Color. Thank you.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Thank you.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
The next question is a follow-up from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Nathan Race (Analyst at Piper Sandler)
Hey, just a follow-up from me on the fee income guide for the fourth quarter. It looks like it takes a slight step down at the midpoint to $29 million even with the contribution from Citizens. So I’d be curious, is that just from lower lease income, or any color on the primary drivers there?
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Yeah, I think you hit it. I think it’s lease income. As we’ve quoted over time, that creates some volatility in the fee income when it relates to lease income, as we can have some end-of-term transactions that result in some gains that are reflected in that number on a quarterly basis. And I think you see that to the tune of a million, million and a half, in the third quarter. So I think that run rate was a little elevated versus the trend in Q3, and that’s the biggest variance, I would say.
Nathan Race (Analyst at Piper Sandler)
Got it. Thanks, Katie.
Kathryn Bailey (EVP, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer)
Thank you.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
At this time, there are no further questions. Sir, do you have any closing remarks?
Tyler Wilcox (President and Chief Executive Officer)
Yes. I want to thank everyone for joining our call this morning. Please remember that our earnings release and webcast of this call, including our earnings conference call presentation, will be archived at peoplesbancorp.com under the Investor Relations section. Thank you for your time and have a great day.
Gary (Conference Facilitator)
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
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