Alphabet Earnings Ahead: Cloud Growth, Gemini, TPU Sales Could Drive Upside

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28.

The company is likely to report revenue and GAAP earnings of $111.4 billion and $3.07 per share, topping Street expectations of $111.0 billion and $2.98 per share, according to Bank of America Securities.

• Alphabet stock is holding steady today. What’s ahead for GOOG stock?

The Alphabet Analyst: Analyst Justin Post maintained a Buy rating and price target of $340.

The Alphabet Thesis: While Search performance is likely to be in line with Street expectations of 15% growth, there is potential for upside at Cloud, driven by capacity growth and incremental TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) sales, Post said in the note.

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He expects Cloud to grow by 93%, higher than consensus of 89%.

Alphabet’s third-quarter operating income may beat Street expectations, the analyst stated, while mentioning the following headwinds to earnings:

• Legal charges related to U.K. app developer and PriceRunner actions
• SpaceX capacity launch costs starting in September
• A 12% decline in Space Exploration Technologies Corp’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) share price, with Alphabet holding around 551 million shares

"We estimate ’26 capex at ~$200bn versus Street $202bn and remain at ~$300bn in ’27, with bias to the upside," he further wrote.

While Alphabet’s core Search business has been under pressure due to agentic risk, the company has exhibited, "strong execution" in migrating users to AI mode and Gemini, Post said. "We believe Google remains well positioned to lead in the AI era supported by proprietary models, custom silicon and broad product distribution," he wrote.

The analyst noted the potential near-term catalysts as:

• Upside driven by TPU sales
• A potential Google consumer agentic launch
• Broader Gemini 4 launch

He estimates fourth-quarter revenues and GAAP earnings at $123.9 billion and $3.33 per share, almost in line with Street expectations.

GOOG Price Action: Shares of Alphabet had declined by 0.74% to $337.63 at the time of publication on Tuesday.