Highlights of the Broker Morning Meeting | Financial Street Forum Releases Reform Signals to Focus on Interest Rate Anchoring and Market Stabilization Mechanisms

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (October 20), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 0.12% to 3735.37 points, the Shenzhen Securities Index fell 0.14% to 11801.29 points, and the GEM index fell 0.26% to 2739.20 points; the turnover of the two markets was 1456.112 billion yuan; it rose 3778 companies, fell 1,667 companies, flat 130 companies, rose and stopped 50, and stopped 0.

Cathay Pacific Haitong believes that the main policy line is interest rate marketization, capital market inclusiveness, risk convergence, and institutional opening; Guojin Securities believes that stock ETFs are still the main purchasing power, with clear net outflows from the two financings and the North; CITIC Securities believes that the most pessimistic phase of the Sino-US model has passed, and domestic models are expected to be systematically re-evaluated; Huafu Securities believes that resuming production is difficult to solve the current shortage, and thermal coal has surpassed 1,000 yuan; China Investment Securities believes that investment and sales in the property market are still bottoming out, and housing prices have improved marginally.

Cathay Pacific Haitong: Macro | Anchoring Financial Powers to Build a New Financial Ecosystem

The 2026 Financial Street Forum sent a signal of reform: the central bank took the opportunity to promote overnight repurchase interest rates as the main policy interest rate, set up non-bank large redemption liquidity tools and expand the scope of SLF; the Securities Regulatory Commission launched the first batch of active ETFs and deepened the new three-board reform; the General Administration of Financial Supervisory Authority safely handled high-risk institutions and promoted the reduction and quality of small and medium-sized institutions; financial openness placed more emphasis on revitalizing entities and optimizing ecology. We believe that the main policy lines are interest rate marketization, capital market inclusiveness, risk mitigation, and institutional openness.

Monetary policy: Policy interest rates take the opportunity to change anchors to enhance liquidity support for non-banks. The central bank said it will establish liquidity support tools to deal with large redemptions from non-bank institutions, expand the scope of SLF applicable institutions to domestic and foreign corporate banks, and achieve full coverage of deposit-type institutions. The framework transformation focuses on policy interest rates. The open market overnight repurchase interest rate will become the main policy interest rate; the loan pricing benchmark will be transformed from LPR to multiple hierarchical layers, and the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate will be withdrawn. At the same time, we will promote bond market connectivity and pilot foreign exchange self-operation by clearing banks, emphasizing that the RMB exchange rate fluctuates in both directions and increases flexibility, that the internationalization of the RMB focuses on asset supply, and anticipates the impact of AI on finance.

Capital market: Launch active ETFs to deepen the new three-board reform. The Securities Regulatory Commission proposed four main lines of stabilizing the market, promoting reforms, improving ecology, and expanding opening-up. The market side improved long-term assessments and expanded the entry of medium- to long-term capital into the market; agreed to register the first batch of 18 active ETFs to encourage repurchases and increase holdings; the reform side accelerated the introduction of regulations for listed companies; the ecological side introduced four measures: fund monitoring, AI securities compliance, holdings reduction penalties, and advance payment; the open side enhances the convenience of QFII, enriches Chinese asset products, and implements the “Five Collaborations” in mainland Hong Kong. In addition, the Beijing Stock Exchange will launch the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 ETF, new stock market capitalization placement, innovative evaluation standards, etc., to deepen the integration of the new three boards.

Financial supervision: Properly dispose of high-risk institutions to promote risk convergence. The General Administration of Financial Supervision has proposed three directions for the “transformation and upgrading” of the banking insurance industry: improving differentiated assessments, promoting the reduction and quality of small and medium-sized institutions; urging the abandonment of scale complexes and punishing financial “black and gray production”; improving service adaptability to support new quality productivity, advanced manufacturing, and the construction of a “six network”. Risk prevention and control emphasizes the comprehensive use of mergers and restructuring, market exit, etc. to properly dispose of high-risk institutions, make up for shortcomings in the system, and investigate and punish key people and key matters; in terms of openness, support for foreign-funded institutions and long-term capital to exhibit their businesses in China.

Financial openness: Facilitate the use of foreign exchange by enterprises and escort cross-border operations. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasizes incorporating “autonomous enterprise cross-border operations” and “open ecological construction” into the same governance framework. On the one hand, strengthen the link between trade, investment, and foreign exchange policies to facilitate the allocation of domestic and foreign capital by enterprises; on the other hand, create a “policy-ecology” dual evaluation mechanism. At the same time, it is proposed to introduce incremental measures such as current account facilitation, capital project optimization, and foreign exchange market opening, to expand pilot foreign exchange settlement projects for securities companies and strengthen exchange rate hedging for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Guojin Securities: Strategy | Stock ETFs are still the main buying power, with net outflows from the two financings and northbound

The popularity of market trading has declined somewhat, and the volatility of major indices continues to rise. Stock ETFs are still the main buying force in the current market. Leveraged capital represented by the two financings continues to have a large net outflow, and the maintenance guarantee ratio continues to decline. Northbound and active equity funds have once again turned to net outflows. The market stage is still facing obvious trading disturbances. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the net outflow of the two financing funds can gradually slow down and whether the maintenance guarantee ratio can gradually rise steadily.

CITIC Securities: Technology | China-US Model 26Q4 Outlook: The Most Pessimistic Phase Has Passed

Despite the current market's cautious attitude towards big models, we are still firmly optimistic about the long-term commercial value and valuation growth space of the Chinese and US models. Currently, the RSI closed loop and model iteration are accelerating, and the combined ARR growth of OpenAI and Anthropic is still steady. The model is highly unbalanced in payment and usage, showing early commercialization characteristics similar to the mobile internet era. Even if we only consider the spread of demand to more companies, scenarios, and regions, there is still plenty of room for commercialization. On the domestic side, demand for data labeling has exploded, and post-training data bottlenecks tend to ease. After domestic models, post-training will eventually break through the gap.

Looking ahead, 26Q4 is expected to be a critical time for large-scale enterprise-level implementation of overseas models. Anthropic ARR's growth rate declined slightly in August-September due to factors such as competition and anti-distillation, but with the release of Opus 5.5 at the end of September and expectations for the release of next-generation models such as Fable 5.5 before launch, we think Anthropic ARR is expected to regain its upward trend after October, thus fixing the market's current expectations that are too pessimistic about the AI sector. Currently, the domestic model ARR is only equivalent to the level of an overseas model 18 months ago, and the valuation is only one-tenth of the overseas model. Once the capacity of the national model is broken through, a lower income base, faster growth rate, and more attractive valuations are expected to drive a systematic revaluation of the domestic model.

Huafu Securities: Energy Mining | Resuming production is difficult to solve the current shortage, thermal coal exceeds 1,000 yuan

Power plant replenishment combined with a high operating rate of methanol has led to a rise in coal prices, and expectations for supply and resumption of production in an environment of strict safety supervision are average. At the macro level, geopolitical conflicts have strengthened countries' energy priorities, high inventories, or countermeasures. At the same time, with the strengthening of policies such as rectifying internal competition and expanding domestic demand, the bottom of the coal price policy has already been determined in 2025. At the demand level, AI development is driven by increased demand, while China's supply chain and energy depressions are a solid guarantee of electricity consumption, and coal prices are in a new upward cycle.

We are in an era of major energy changes. Under policy guidance and energy security demands that were established first and then broken, coal may still be in a golden age. The flexibility of coal supply is limited: First, in the context of double carbon, production capacity control is strict, and safety and environmental protection policies are squeezing out the excess; second, supply shows regional differentiation. As resources in the eastern region decrease and Shanxi enters an era of “stable production,” the difficulty of mining or gradually increases, domestic production capacity is further concentrated in the west, increasing supply costs; third, after further mining and safety standards are raised, the difficulty of coking coal mining will increase, and underproduction may become the new normal, and resource scarcity will become more obvious. The status of coal as the main energy source is difficult to change in the short term. Although weak macroeconomics have affected coal demand in stages, supply rigidity and rising costs have effectively supported the bottom of coal prices, and coal prices are still expected to maintain a volatile pattern. Coal companies' asset statements are generally healthy. Combined with the overall improvement in dividend ratios, coal stocks still have a comparative advantage.

SDIC Securities: Real Estate | The property market is bottoming out, and price warmth is gradually showing

Sales have stabilized and inventory removal has shown results. From January to September 2026, commercial housing sales across the country continued to bottom out, and inventory removal signals were positive. The sales area of newly built commercial housing from January to September was 560 million square meters and sales volume was 5.4 trillion yuan, down 13.2% and 13.9%, respectively. The declines increased by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points from January to August, respectively. However, the decline in sales was significantly narrower than the low of 20.2% at the beginning of the year, and the margin of sales momentum stabilized. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the online signing area for second-hand housing transactions from January to September was 620 million square meters, an increase of 10.7% over the previous year. Market activity continued to increase, becoming an important support for stabilizing demand. At the end of September, the area of newly built commercial housing for sale was 750 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. Among them, the area to be sold for less than 3 years decreased by 5.0%, and the results of inventory removal gradually became apparent.

Development investment declined, and supply contracted actively. Investment in real estate development is still at the bottom, with supply-side active contraction and structural optimization. From January to September, the country invested 5.3 trillion yuan in real estate development, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%, of which residential investment was 4.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20.5%. The decline was 0.7 percentage points higher than in January-August. On the supply side, housing construction area from January to September was 5.65 billion square meters, down 12.8% year on year; new housing construction area was 340 million square meters, down 24.9% year on year; and completed housing area was 230 million square meters, down 25.1% year on year. New construction starts and continues to operate at a low level, and the industry is speeding up the elimination of stocks and controlling growth. As policies to stabilize the property market continue to gain strength, development investment is expected to stabilize at a low level.

Housing prices have stabilized marginally, leading the way in core cities. Housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have continued to show signs of marginal improvement. The number of cities that have risen month-on-month has increased, and the year-on-year decline has generally narrowed. In September, prices of newly built commercial homes in first-tier cities rose 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively; second-tier cities changed from decline to flat, and third-tier cities remained the same as last month; in 70 cities, prices of newly built commercial residential buildings rose month-on-month in 17 cities, an increase of 2 over the previous month. In terms of second-hand housing, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities rose 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. North, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all rose month-on-month; out of 70 cities, second-hand housing prices rose month-on-month in 9 cities, an increase of 6 over the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, the year-on-year decline in prices of newly built commercial housing in Tier 1, 2, and 3 cities narrowed by 0.4, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities narrowed by 1.2 percentage points, and signs of recovery spread outward from core cities. Overall, investment and sales in the industry are still bottoming out, but housing prices have continued to improve marginally, and the market is accumulating steady momentum.