Berenberg Tweaks BHP Group Forecasts After Fiscal Q1 Operational Review

08:05 AM EDT, 10/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg "slightly" revised its production and cost forecasts for BHP Group (BHP.L, BHG.JO) amid a model update following the mining group's fiscal first-quarter operational review. BHP's copper production totaled 400,700 tonnes, below the research firm's estimate of 414,000 tonnes and the consensus of 424,000 tonnes, impacted by disruptions caused by maintenance and winter weather events in Chile, Berenberg said in a note published Wednesday. "Encouragingly, the new collective agreement with Union No 2 at Escondida was signed for a 36-month period (effective from 14 October 2026), providing protection against potential future disputes and production interruptions, we think," analysts said. "The company also highlighted its target to grow Copper SA production to 500ktpa by 2035 and 650ktpa by 2040. We currently model volumes of c310kt by 2035 and await a strategy update at the planned site visit to the Copper [South Australia] operations in November, where we expect the shares to react positively if greater confidence can be provided on the execution of this growth target." The research firm's changes to financial estimates include lower EPS and EBITDA projections for fiscal years 2027 and 2028. For fiscal 2029, the assumptions for both metrics were bumped up. The hold recommendation on the stock and price target of 35 pounds sterling were left unchanged.