At $250, is the Macquarie share price a bargain buy or red flag?

The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price closed flat at $250.37 on Wednesday afternoon.

The investment bank has had a great run so far in 2026, with the shares up around 23% year to date, and roughly 9% higher than a year ago.

Why are Macquarie shares flying higher in 2026?

The bank's share first started jumping higher back in the first quarter of the calendar year, when it posted a trading update to the market revealing strong quarterly growth, a recovery of its assets under management (AUM), and a boost to its Banking and Financial Services (BFS) segment.

This combined with good market momentum saw many change their stance on the bank shares. 

And they've continued climbing ever since.

The company had another positive set of earnings results in May. At the time, Macquarie reported a full-year FY26 net profit of $4.85 billion, up 30% from FY25, and growth across all four of its operating divisions.

Then, a couple of months later in July, Macquarie had its AGM, posted its first-quarter FY27 update, and announced that CEO Shemara Wikramanayake will retire in November, with Greg Ward to take over the top job.

Macquarie described trading conditions during the first quarter as "satisfactory". Its BFS segment increased its profit contribution compared with the same period last year. Deposits rose by 4% during the quarter, while home loans grew by 6% and business banking loans increased by 3%.

The share price growth has been more subdued over the past couple of months but stays resilient around the $240 to $250 mark despite market-wide volatility and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds throughout September and early-October.

Are the shares a bargain buy? Or has the opportunity passed?

If broker forecasts are anything to go by, there is still plenty of room for growth out of Macquarie shares over the next 12 months.

Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a buy rating on the shares. The $273.89 average target price implies 9% potential upside at the time of writing. 

TradingView data shows something similar. Again, the majority (10 out of 15) also have a buy/strong buy rating on the shares. Another four rate the shares as a hold, and one has a sell rating.

The average $270.73 Macquarie target share price implies a potential 8% upside ahead. Whereas the more bullish of the bunch expect the Macquarie share price could climb another 20% higher to $300 each, at the time of writing.

The team at RBC Capital have a bullish outlook on Macquarie shares. They have a buy rating and a $300 target price.

The team point to the bank's upcoming first-half FY27 earnings early next month, where they expect the company to deliver mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth into FY29. RBC Capital anticipates the growth will be underpinned by operating leverage across the bank's asset management and personal banking businesses'.

The team at Catapult Wealth have a buy rating on the investment bank. The wealth management company thinks Macquarie shares are a good alternative to the big four banks in the current environment.

With potential upsides of up to 20%, I'd say $250 is still a bargain for Macquarie shares.

The post At $250, is the Macquarie share price a bargain buy or red flag? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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