Holmen (OM:HOLM B) Q3 Results Reveal A Sharp Margin Squeeze
Holmen came into its Q3 2026 report with a stock that had drifted lower in recent weeks, down 4.9% over seven days and 7.9% over a month, and closed at SEK305.6 just as the numbers dropped. The company, which many investors view as a steady Nordic forest and board compounder, just printed a quarter that told a different story. Revenue landed at SEK5,377m while basic earnings per share slipped to 2.6 SEK, pointing to a clear margin squeeze that clashes with the long term quality narrative.
Like the long term Holmen story but uneasy about a quarter that hints at pressure on profitability? Set your own bar for quality margins by comparing OM:HOLM B to our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks (204 results).
Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK5,377m vs SEK5,327m (broadly flat top line with a slight increase in reported sales)
- Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK391m vs SEK944m (sharp decline, reflecting much thinner profitability for Holmen)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025): SEK2.6 vs SEK6.1 (EPS more than halved, indicating earnings pressure at the per share level)
- Trailing 12-Month Net Profit Margin (Q3 2026 TTM vs prior year TTM): 9.5% vs 12.2% (margin compressed, with reported figures still affected by a SEK1.0b one off gain)
Ask Charlie what Holmen’s forest split could unlock over time.
Holmen’s Margin Recovery Story Faces Early Setback
The bullish view on Holmen leans heavily on better mix and lower input costs feeding a cleaner, richer earnings profile over time.
"Exposure to higher value added solid bleached board and book paper grades, which serve more resilient packaging and publishing niches, may allow Holmen to defend pricing better than the broader market and support long term revenue growth and margin stability."
Q3 tells you that aspiration is still a work in progress. Group revenue was broadly flat year on year while net income excluding extra items fell sharply. Trailing net margin sits at 9.5%, well below the 12.3% level bullish analysts use as a starting point for future improvement, so the margin stability claim has not yet shown up in reported results.
One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all.
Holmen Bear Case Finds Support In Segment Strains
The harsher view on Holmen argues that weak power economics will keep a lid on group profitability.
"Very low electricity prices in northern Sweden, limited transmission capacity and a loss making renewable energy segment, including wind curtailments and only modest price premia, point to a prolonged period of subdued power earnings and reduced contribution to group EBIT."
Q3 Energy EBIT of SEK42m, described as lower than Q2 and hit by grid maintenance and curtailments, lines up with that concern. Minimal hedging and continued regional price gaps leave earnings exposed. For now, the power unit remains far from a clear profit engine.
Hunt For Mispriced Earnings Stories
Holmen’s latest quarter shows how a familiar earnings story can shift when margins tighten. The real opportunity is studying stocks that could be undervalued before expectations reset.
- Company 1 - 19% below our estimate - expand an online delivery platform as everyday food and grocery spending transitions from offline shopping to digital ordering.
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That is three of the list. See every one of the 191 undervalued companies on it →
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